Dunyain Weakness

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Bertxi

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« on: November 27, 2013, 07:10:38 am »
I find it hard to dismiss the feeling that Bakker is leading up to a very big hook coming off stage right to grab Kellhus and gaffle him. Sprinkled throughout TJE, and TWLW, we have examples of Dunyain fallibility, and the general contempt for the “world born men”.  Maithanet’s miscalculation regarding Esmenet regarding Kellhus’ own reasons for giving her the command of the New Empire, Maithanet not fully realizing what a monster Kelmomas was/is, Kellhus reading Sorwell’s face incorrectly due to his god masking, Inrilates incorrectly thinking that he could kill Maithanet, Kayutas and Serwa not guessing the fact that the consult might attack them from the rear when they both should know about the hording tendencies of the Sranc. There is also the question if Kellhus knew that the army of the South would be annihilated, and had already calculated that into his Thousand Fold Thought.  All the half Dunyain seem to having glaring weakness due to their feelings of superiority, and it seems to reason that Kellhus, who now seems to believe that he is something more, would share this too. If his objectivity is damaged, then wouldn’t his conclusions reached through his Thousand Fold Thought be flawed as well? He might very well be setting into motion the very thing that he set out to stop, because he just doesn’t understand the Consult, the No-God, or believes incorrectly that he has been truly sent to save the human race.

Cüréthañ

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« Reply #1 on: November 27, 2013, 09:09:10 am »
Welcome Bertxi, nice first post.  ;)

Not sold on Kellhus being fooled by Sorweel, but it does seem that way.

Further, during PoN there are a few other times when he is nearly screwed by miscalculations and comes through by luck: 

  • vs the Nonman as random encounter after leaving Ishual,
  • vs sranc before being rescued by Cnaiur on the stepe,
  • vs Aurang-as-Esme he nearly gets screwed by cants he should have known about.
  • Kellhus admits to himself that he should have killed Cnaiur in TWP.
  • on the circumfix, he is saved again by Cnaiur in spite of the admission above
Also, when he kills Moe there is a strong possibility that the reason he does so is because of a twig in his shoe rather than the conclusion that Moe would betray TTT.
Is he relying on the probability trance now, or acting according to what he thinks 'the world' or 'god' is telling him?

On a side note, I can't help but compare the scene where Kellhus spoke to the world soul in TTT and Kelmomas 'communing' with Ajokli at the start of TJE.
If Ajokli is aware of the no-god, he might be the one holding the hook. :)  Trickster god blindsides everyone, fufufu.
« Last Edit: November 27, 2013, 09:18:19 am by Curethan »
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Madness

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« Reply #2 on: November 27, 2013, 11:28:14 am »
+1 Curethan. Bertxi, if you have lurked around at all you may know too that locke is a major proponent of Dunyain Fallibility. Also, welcome to the Second Apocalypse.

Maithanet’s miscalculation regarding Esmenet regarding Kellhus’ own reasons for giving her the command of the New Empire, Maithanet not fully realizing what a monster Kelmomas was/is, Kellhus reading Sorwell’s face incorrectly due to his god masking, Inrilates incorrectly thinking that he could kill Maithanet, Kayutas and Serwa not guessing the fact that the consult might attack them from the rear when they both should know about the hording tendencies of the Sranc.

These are half-Dunyain problems as you note. Kellhus' got 99 problems but this ain't necessarily one.

But...

- Kelmomas avoids scrutiny of anyone but his mother effortfully.
- Kellhus reading Sorweel is ambiguous - he may or may not have spent enough time around Sorweel to realize the dissonance in anticipating his thoughts or Yatwer plays Kellhus.
- Kelmomas kills Maithanet and used Inrilatas as a tool, arguably, while Inrilatas may have achieved some obscure personal ends by trying to die as the most Damned soul.
- No one thinks about the possibility of Yoke Legions, including the Mandate who dreamed of them...

There is also the question if Kellhus knew that the army of the South would be annihilated, and had already calculated that into his Thousand Fold Thought.

+1 - I believe this to be so. Certainly, any military leader worth his weight in salt would have anticipated and planned for losing as much as half of their forces on both a forced and fighting march.

All the half Dunyain seem to having glaring weakness due to their feelings of superiority, and it seems to reason that Kellhus, who now seems to believe that he is something more, would share this too. If his objectivity is damaged, then wouldn’t his conclusions reached through his Thousand Fold Thought be flawed as well? He might very well be setting into motion the very thing that he set out to stop, because he just doesn’t understand the Consult, the No-God, or believes incorrectly that he has been truly sent to save the human race.

+1 - anyone of those interpretations is possible. I for one still think Kellhus capable of managing...
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Wilshire

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« Reply #3 on: November 27, 2013, 04:28:42 pm »
I'm sure there is someone around here who wants to agree with you fully, though not I.

I do believe that the Dunyain, i.e Kellhus, is fallible. Most notably in the PoN series. To add to Curethan's list, Kellhus nearly had his neck snapped by Cnaiur out on the beach.

I think that the Dunyain, in a mundane word without Gods or Magic, would reign supreme in all things. However there is much more at work here. There are simply too many variables to correctly guess everything. Look at Moenghus Sr. for example. He had 30 years and couldn't see past the circumfix.

Though I will say that Kellhus might have planned to lose a large part of his army. They are already starving and can't find enough food. That loss will actually allow the rest of the army to survive.
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« Reply #4 on: November 27, 2013, 05:53:23 pm »
It's somewhat ironic in that the Army of the South constituted some of Kellhus' least loyal supporters.

Look at Moenghus Sr. for example. He had 30 years and couldn't see past the circumfix.

Segue, I think you are wrong :P.
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Borque

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« Reply #5 on: November 27, 2013, 09:20:35 pm »
Yes, the Army of the South clearly was the most expendable part. But I don't see the obvious benefit in expending it by blundering, which is basically what happened. Had any sorcerous resources remained at Irsulor, it could have ended very differently.

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« Reply #6 on: November 27, 2013, 11:40:56 pm »
The Mandate are no longer linked to an army and could well be considered a spent force by the Consult. 
The host is described as a mere conveyance and meat shield to get the sorcerers to Golgotteroth.
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Wilshire

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« Reply #7 on: November 28, 2013, 03:28:48 am »
The Mandate are no longer linked to an army and could well be considered a spent force by the Consult. 
The host is described as a mere conveyance and meat shield to get the sorcerers to Golgotteroth.

I want to believe that, but they have no idea who many chorae they have. They clearly need someone who can pick up a sword in case all the bashrag and great weapon races are wielding them.
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« Reply #8 on: November 28, 2013, 03:55:48 am »
Yep, thus 'meat shield'.

But if the consult think all the sorcerers are with the ordeal, there is no need to hold reserves when they crush them.
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« Reply #9 on: November 28, 2013, 12:06:46 pm »
Yes, the Army of the South clearly was the most expendable part. But I don't see the obvious benefit in expending it by blundering, which is basically what happened. Had any sorcerous resources remained at Irsulor, it could have ended very differently.

Again, as I said upthread, I don't necessarily believe that Kellhus counted on such bad tactical decisions by his commanders but, clearly, military strategy suggests people make mistakes and pay dearly for them.

But...

The Mandate are no longer linked to an army and could well be considered a spent force by the Consult. 
The host is described as a mere conveyance and meat shield to get the sorcerers to Golgotteroth.

Moot point - the Ordeal has recombined as one at the end of the WLW.

The Mandate are no longer linked to an army and could well be considered a spent force by the Consult. 
The host is described as a mere conveyance and meat shield to get the sorcerers to Golgotteroth.

I want to believe that, but they have no idea who many chorae they have.

Um... only literally the largest collection in Earwa :)?

Yep, thus 'meat shield'.

But if the consult think all the sorcerers are with the ordeal, there is no need to hold reserves when they crush them.

Lol - I really do like Wic's 'metameatshield' from the Speculation thread, who is riffing off who, I don't know.
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Cüréthañ

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« Reply #10 on: November 28, 2013, 12:29:07 pm »
Moot point - the Ordeal has recombined as one at the end of the WLW.

Eh, I was talking about how the regular army and the Volkanti were pretty much destroyed.  For the sake of speculation, assume that the Mandati did not suffer so badly (they were seperated from the main conflict and then assailed by their contemperaries, who didn't have the gnosis...)  Kellhus rounds up the survivors and grossly overstates the losses amongst the mandate and then spreads them out amongst the army, causing misinformation on the Ordeal's strength and disposition.  The sheer size of the ordeal means that the consult has to rely on torture and espionage for intel as it is.  Of course Kellhus is going to be engaged in tactical subterfuge and counter espionage, this is just one possibility.

Note that he has Mandati such as Ekyanus already split off on assignments with different segments of the army earlier.
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« Reply #11 on: November 28, 2013, 12:43:45 pm »
Stretching, sonny son.

Maybe. Maybe not. I don't think the Consult so easily fooled (and I agree that the Mandate wouldn't have lost as many as the Vokalati, however, both are surely affected by Carindusu's error).
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Wilshire

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« Reply #12 on: November 28, 2013, 02:27:54 pm »
Maybe. Maybe not. I don't think the Consult so easily fooled (and I agree that the Mandate wouldn't have lost as many as the Vokalati, however, both are surely affected by Carindusu's error).
They are called the Few for a reason.

I now agree with the term meatshield. The confusion was that I thought meatshield was synonymous with useless and expendable. They do fill an important role, everyone knows that any good party has to have a Tank, though its not a very complex one.
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« Reply #13 on: November 28, 2013, 05:19:27 pm »
Lol - because I think it's hilarious and because the Great God Procrastidemus demands sacrifice ('cause editing papers is for suckers, just like walking and rain):

Meatshield: The majority of the non-Few, especially those without Chorae, who serve as fodder, to hew Sranc and to be so hewed, in order to convey the Few as unscathed as possible to Golgotterath.

Metameatshield: The Great Ordeal entire, Few and non-Few, who serve as fodder, to hew Sranc and Quya and to be so hewed, in order to convey Anasurimbor Kellhus personally as unscathed as possible to Golgotterath.
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Wilshire

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« Reply #14 on: November 28, 2013, 06:06:54 pm »
lmao yes. Henceforth these terms have been defined.

11/28/2013
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