Luck or Cunning?

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Walter

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« on: May 11, 2017, 01:45:05 pm »
So, at the climax of TTT, Kellhus is down in the depths with his father.  The Holy War is locked in its ultimate clash with Fanayal's final army.  The Scarlet Spires and the Cishaurim are annihilating one another.

And Conphas is coming up behind the Holy War with a fresh army, and the Imperial Saik.

As we all know, they blunder across Achamanian, and then Saubon rolls up in the confusion and kills Conphas, taking command of the army (and the Saik), and bringing them in on the side of the Holy War.

Fundamentally, this is the conclusion of the battle, as the Saik are the only School left on the field, and they annihilate the Fanim just as they did the Scylvendri at Kiyuth.

The thing I want to point out is...this seems like total luck.

Like, Conphas's downfall is the result of several elements in sequence, each seemingly unconnected to Kellhus's machinations.
1: He splits the Saik up, leaving them unable to defeat a Mandate Schoolman.
2: Akka (owing to his feud with Iyokus) ends up behind the main battle, in prime position to spy the incoming Nansur force and take them on
3: Saubon rolls up immediately after Akka starts throwing down.

If any of those things go differently, the whole thing fails.
If Conphas has the Saik gathered together then they murder Akka, then Saubon.
If Akka isn't present then the Grandmaster of the Saik kills Saubon
If Saubon shows up earlier then the Grandmaster kills him

If Conphas is still in control of the Imperial force then the Holy War is massacred, as a School and an army show up behind it.  That leaves Kellhus in a position where conquering the Three Seas seems like a pipe dream, as he is the loathed False Prophet who led the Holy War to damnation, defeat, and death.

So, do y'all think that Kellhus planned the foiling of Conphas and the suborning of his army, or do you think that was just a lucky break (ie: Kellhus doesn't know anything about the Nansur, his plan was just Holy War > Fanim, with him finishing off any Cishaurim who happened to survive)?

Madness

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« Reply #1 on: May 11, 2017, 01:51:02 pm »
It seems likely that Kellhus knew Conphas was going to attack and planned on way-laying the "Orthodox" Nansur and the Saik with Saubon's forces.

Kellhus certainly manipulated Saubon into staying at Caraskand to wrestle with his allegiances just long enough to ride to the Holy War's aid.

And Saubon himself, likely many of his force too, had Chorae so the Grandmaster wasn't going to be an issue for him. Had Achamian not been there, Conphas would have deployed his forces to the field while remaining on the hill-top and Saubon would have caught him unawares without his forces, regardless.
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themerchant

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« Reply #2 on: May 11, 2017, 01:59:46 pm »
Also doesn't Kellhus tell Akka to teach him a cant of calling first, when he learns his first Cant? Maybe so he can send Saubon dreams and spur him to come to Shimeh after all.

H

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« Reply #3 on: May 11, 2017, 03:03:16 pm »
"Luck is the residue of design."

No such thing as luck.  Kellhus set up the pieces to fall pretty much in line with how he needed them to.
“I am a warrior of ages, Anasûrimbor . . . ages. I have dipped my nimil in a thousand hearts. I have ridden both against and for the No-God in the great wars that authored this wilderness. I have scaled the ramparts of great Golgotterath, watched the hearts of High Kings break for fury.” -Cet’ingira

Athorn "FB" Gallizur

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« Reply #4 on: May 16, 2017, 06:51:28 am »
"Luck is the residue of design."

No such thing as luck.  Kellhus set up the pieces to fall pretty much in line with how he needed them to.

Agreed, though I'll add we should keep in mind just how much of the board was set-up for him before-hand by his father (and I would be rather surprised if the conditioning started with Moenghus alone -- our only reason to believe this is the case is because we have so little access to concrete knowledge on what Moe himself was actually up to for thirty years to begin with).

H

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« Reply #5 on: May 16, 2017, 10:11:21 am »
"Luck is the residue of design."

No such thing as luck.  Kellhus set up the pieces to fall pretty much in line with how he needed them to.

Agreed, though I'll add we should keep in mind just how much of the board was set-up for him before-hand by his father (and I would be rather surprised if the conditioning started with Moenghus alone -- our only reason to believe this is the case is because we have so little access to concrete knowledge on what Moe himself was actually up to for thirty years to begin with).

Not to mention what circumstances lead to his leaving Ishuäl.  I don't buy it being as simple as, "Moe meets Sranc, Moe has to leave."
“I am a warrior of ages, Anasûrimbor . . . ages. I have dipped my nimil in a thousand hearts. I have ridden both against and for the No-God in the great wars that authored this wilderness. I have scaled the ramparts of great Golgotterath, watched the hearts of High Kings break for fury.” -Cet’ingira