Ordeal logistics and planning

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Hiro

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« on: June 22, 2017, 06:32:49 pm »
I imagine Kellhus and his ProbTrance, plus Imperial planners, came up with the minimum amount of sorcerers / warriors needed to take down Golg. and the Consult.

Then, calculate how big the host, that is the Ordeal, should be, in order to ensure this minimum amount completes the journey and their mission.

Yet, how would Kellhus have enough info to arrive at these numbers?

I mean, has he or someone else done some extensive reconnaissance / fact-finding?


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Wilshire

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« Reply #1 on: June 23, 2017, 11:30:01 am »
I imagine Kellhus and his ProbTrance, plus Imperial planners, came up with the minimum amount of sorcerers / warriors needed to take down Golg. and the Consult.
I'm not so sure about that. Golgotterath and its resources are pretty unknown. I think they were more likely to try and maximize everything so that they got the most possible to the gates. Schoolmen first, obviously, the more the better, soldiers second. An optimal solution for that equation probably goes something like: the more schoolmen that live, the less risky they are in the field, the more soldiers will die - but if the schoolmen are too cautious and too many soldiers die, then all of them die as well.

Then, calculate how big the host, that is the Ordeal, should be, in order to ensure this minimum amount completes the journey and their mission.
I love the section in TJE where they talk about all the logistics planning. Basically 20 years to assemble all the food and infrastructure behind sending an army across the world.

Yet, how would Kellhus have enough info to arrive at these numbers?

I mean, has he or someone else done some extensive reconnaissance / fact-finding?

The imperial trackers, for one. They spent a lot of time sending out people to meticulously map out the land as far as they could go. Not all the way to Golgotterath, but they got pretty far.
All the scalpers pushing back the sranc would have helped some as well.
Ancient Mandate texts - IIRC Kellhus spent some time going through their entire library trying to glean every piece of information about his foe that he could.
Kellhus himself probably did some hopping around too.

But like I said above, I don't they they were really solving the equation for a minimum, but a maximum. The max food they could carry, the max causalities they could suffer, the max attrition, etc. etc. They may have come up with a minimum they thought they needed, but really, their goal would have been to get the max forces their possible.
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Moosehunter

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« Reply #2 on: June 23, 2017, 01:05:31 pm »
I imagine Kellhus and his ProbTrance, plus Imperial planners, came up with the minimum amount of sorcerers / warriors needed to take down Golg. and the Consult.
I'm not so sure about that. Golgotterath and its resources are pretty unknown. I think they were more likely to try and maximize everything so that they got the most possible to the gates. Schoolmen first, obviously, the more the better, soldiers second. An optimal solution for that equation probably goes something like: the more schoolmen that live, the less risky they are in the field, the more soldiers will die - but if the schoolmen are too cautious and too many soldiers die, then all of them die as well.

Then, calculate how big the host, that is the Ordeal, should be, in order to ensure this minimum amount completes the journey and their mission.
I love the section in TJE where they talk about all the logistics planning. Basically 20 years to assemble all the food and infrastructure behind sending an army across the world.

Yet, how would Kellhus have enough info to arrive at these numbers?

I mean, has he or someone else done some extensive reconnaissance / fact-finding?

The imperial trackers, for one. They spent a lot of time sending out people to meticulously map out the land as far as they could go. Not all the way to Golgotterath, but they got pretty far.
All the scalpers pushing back the sranc would have helped some as well.
Ancient Mandate texts - IIRC Kellhus spent some time going through their entire library trying to glean every piece of information about his foe that he could.
Kellhus himself probably did some hopping around too.

But like I said above, I don't they they were really solving the equation for a minimum, but a maximum. The max food they could carry, the max causalities they could suffer, the max attrition, etc. etc. They may have come up with a minimum they thought they needed, but really, their goal would have been to get the max forces their possible.


I completely agree with your assessment that they were trying to bring the maximum possible force to bear against Golgotterath.
When you consider that Kelhus left but one schoolman and very limited armies behind. I would argue just enough to stop it all coming apart while the Ordeal was within communication and supply reach of the Empire. Maithanet is aware that the Empire is expected to collapse and imparts this to Esmenet.

I'm unsure why the Ordeal is considered the greatest force ever assembled however. I think the Holy War was around 340K on the Inrithi side. The Kianiane probably had something similar. It must be because of the sheer number of Schools in attendance.

Wilshire

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« Reply #3 on: June 23, 2017, 01:29:12 pm »
I'm unsure why the Ordeal is considered the greatest force ever assembled however. I think the Holy War was around 340K on the Inrithi side. The Kianiane probably had something similar. It must be because of the sheer number of Schools in attendance.

Well the Holy War split in half before it even started. Didn't some 100-200k die in the Vulgar holy war?
TGO is an assembly of every Three Seas nation - making it geographically the largest assembly.
Schools and chorae are vital in calculating how strong a force is - no army has ever has even close to the number of schoolmen moblized. Hell, there hasn't even been 2 gnostic schools since pre-apocalypse.
One of the other conditions of possibility.

Madness

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« Reply #4 on: June 23, 2017, 01:30:51 pm »
I mentioned my Imperial Tracker consideration in Quorum and Kellhus translocating as he pleases, as Wilshire mentioned.

Honestly, you want to be confounded by Bakker's logistics, I basically can't even imagine how the Trackers made it as far as the rivers Northeast of the Neleost. And though, most of their references are in passing, I can't recall if the Trackers are mentioned past WLW.

Thanks for making the thread, Hiro ;).

I'm unsure why the Ordeal is considered the greatest force ever assembled however. I think the Holy War was around 340K on the Inrithi side. The Kianiane probably had something similar. It must be because of the sheer number of Schools in attendance.

Well the Holy War split in half before it even started. Didn't some 100-200k die in the Vulgar holy war?
TGO is an assembly of every Three Seas nation - making it geographically the largest assembly.
Schools and chorae are vital in calculating how strong a force is - no army has ever has even close to the number of schoolmen moblized. Hell, there hasn't even been 2 gnostic schools since pre-apocalypse.

Yeah, it adds up quite quickly when you think about the division between Schools and mundane forces across history - there are rarer instances of Schools/Secular powers teaming up, certainly not to scale of The Great Ordeal. Plus the Schools basically just doubled the Few in the World by Kellhus' moves with the Swayal.
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themerchant

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« Reply #5 on: June 23, 2017, 02:53:22 pm »
It probably was like that for the planners but for Kellhus i imagine it was a bit different.

The big idea was to get to the nelelost sea (sp?) and have an event that would make eating sranc possible. In the meta-planning. Enough supplies to get them so hungry and then a disaster. Then after that no problems with food or water.






Hiro

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« Reply #6 on: June 23, 2017, 04:21:35 pm »
I imagine Kellhus and his ProbTrance, plus Imperial planners, came up with the minimum amount of sorcerers / warriors needed to take down Golg. and the Consult.
I'm not so sure about that. Golgotterath and its resources are pretty unknown. I think they were more likely to try and maximize everything so that they got the most possible to the gates. Schoolmen first, obviously, the more the better, soldiers second. An optimal solution for that equation probably goes something like: the more schoolmen that live, the less risky they are in the field, the more soldiers will die - but if the schoolmen are too cautious and too many soldiers die, then all of them die as well.

Then, calculate how big the host, that is the Ordeal, should be, in order to ensure this minimum amount completes the journey and their mission.
I love the section in TJE where they talk about all the logistics planning. Basically 20 years to assemble all the food and infrastructure behind sending an army across the world.

Yet, how would Kellhus have enough info to arrive at these numbers?

I mean, has he or someone else done some extensive reconnaissance / fact-finding?

The imperial trackers, for one. They spent a lot of time sending out people to meticulously map out the land as far as they could go. Not all the way to Golgotterath, but they got pretty far.
All the scalpers pushing back the sranc would have helped some as well.
Ancient Mandate texts - IIRC Kellhus spent some time going through their entire library trying to glean every piece of information about his foe that he could.
Kellhus himself probably did some hopping around too.

But like I said above, I don't they they were really solving the equation for a minimum, but a maximum. The max food they could carry, the max causalities they could suffer, the max attrition, etc. etc. They may have come up with a minimum they thought they needed, but really, their goal would have been to get the max forces their possible.

Wilshire, good point regarding maximum vs minimum. In the case that Kellhus plus helpers cannot get enough information beforehand, they could assume the worst and opt for maximum.

Still, with so many unknown factors, and so very much riding on it, I still take it that Kellhus (plus...?) must have done as much research as possible.

On the other hand, perhaps the calculation was time-based. They figured, No-God would become a reality within approximately 20 years. So let's create the maximum Ordeal we can assemble out of the Three-Seas by then.

Still, when I think more about this, questions multiply about the wisdom of all this. For the reader, key missing information is Kellhus real / probably deceptive agenda, a lot depends on that. So the speculation continues, for a few more weeks...
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