Saubon v. Conphas (And Other Considerations)

  • 9 Replies
  • 789 Views

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Madness

  • *
  • Administrator
  • Old Name
  • *****
  • Conversational Batman
  • Posts: 4928
  • Strength on the Journey - Journey Well
    • View Profile
    • The Second Apocalypse
« on: June 23, 2017, 02:10:03 pm »
Continued from Quorum...

I'll have thoughts but I'll let this boil ;).
The Existential Scream
Weaponizing the Warrior Pose - Declare War Inwardly
carnificibus: multus sanguis fluit
Die Better
The Theory-Killer

Walter

  • *
  • The Afflicted Few
  • Kijneta
  • *****
  • Posts: 166
    • View Profile
« Reply #1 on: June 23, 2017, 02:24:32 pm »
Alright, let's talk about the battle of Shimeh.

My thoughts, labeled so that they are easy to talk about.

Original Timeline (timeline in the book)

1: HW and Fanim are battling, with Fanim having the upper hand due to their tactics
2: Nansur are approaching rear of HW, Saik in tow, to destroy it
3: Akka, due to Iyokus treachery, ends up near Nansur HQ, kills several Saik and scatters their formation
4: Saubon attacks Nansur from behind, kills Conphas and takes over Nansur army
5: Nansur + Galeoth forces + Saik reinforce the Holy War and defeat Fanim

Our discussion basically boiled down to how much of this outcome is dependent on luck (Akka's arrival), vs how much is dependent on Kellhus manipulations (Saubon is presumably part of Kellhus plan)

I postulate an alternate timeline (A), wherein Akka does not show up to the battle

A1: HW and Fanim are battling, with Fanim having the upper hand due to their tactics
A2: Nansur are approaching rear of HW, Saik in tow, to destroy it
A3: Nansur attack HW in the back with Saik support
A4: Galeoth attack Nansur in the back, no School support
A5: Battle now has 4 armies (Fanim, HW, Nansur, Galeoth), with 1 School (Saik) on the Fanim/Nansur side.  My general thinking is that this is ultimately results in victory for the Nansur/Fanim

Discussion also covers another alternate timeline (B), wherein Saubon caught up to the Nansur before they attack the HW

(Basic question of A vs B is how long the Nansur are stalled when Akka slaughters their HQ and kills 4 Saik + the Saik GM)

B1:  HW and Fanim are battling, with Fanim having the upper hand due to their tactics
B2: Nansur are approaching rear of HW, Saik in tow, to destroy it
B3: Galeoth attack Nansur in the back, no School support

At this point we have 2 seperate battles, Fanim/HW and Nansur/Galeoth
Very hard to guess how this goes, my best guess is:
HW lasts long enough for Kellhus to get back and turn the tide of Fanim/HW
Nansur slaughter the Galeoth in short order, due to having the Saik

Very hard to say what happens next in B timeline.


The upshot of all this is that Akka (or rather, luck) saved Kellhus bacon, keeping him out of A timeline and on track to become Aspect Emperor.

themerchant

  • *
  • The Afflicted Few
  • Old Name
  • *****
  • Captain Slogger
  • Posts: 782
    • View Profile
« Reply #2 on: June 23, 2017, 02:55:51 pm »
Quick  question why is Iyokus treachery getting a shout? He is there cause Cnaiur told him about Kellhus and Conphas (which he forgets to say) cause he runs to esme to tell her, then they go off to some ruins and do what they do.

Iyokus demon finds him after he kills 5 Imperial Saik, and he takes that out too.

Walter

  • *
  • The Afflicted Few
  • Kijneta
  • *****
  • Posts: 166
    • View Profile
« Reply #3 on: June 23, 2017, 02:58:25 pm »
I hadn't read it in a while, thought that Iyokus's daemon hit Akka before, and that's what drove him over to the Nansur.  My bad.

themerchant

  • *
  • The Afflicted Few
  • Old Name
  • *****
  • Captain Slogger
  • Posts: 782
    • View Profile
« Reply #4 on: June 23, 2017, 03:10:52 pm »
Saubon is reaching the Imperial army.

There is not much time between Akka appearing and Saubon appearing. So they would have engaged before anyone reached shimeh and the HW.

I think the imperial Saik would totally feck up Saubon and his troops in the battle.

themerchant

  • *
  • The Afflicted Few
  • Old Name
  • *****
  • Captain Slogger
  • Posts: 782
    • View Profile
« Reply #5 on: June 23, 2017, 03:11:34 pm »
I hadn't read it in a while, thought that Iyokus's daemon hit Akka before, and that's what drove him over to the Nansur.  My bad.

Yeah the demon had to go look for him, actually asks some Pillarian where he is before skinning him like a grape or something.

MSJ

  • *
  • The Afflicted Few
  • Old Name
  • *****
  • Yatwer's Baby Daddy
  • Posts: 1704
  • "You killed the wolf"
    • View Profile
« Reply #6 on: June 23, 2017, 06:52:37 pm »
I've heard theories that Kellhus sent Saubon dreams, so he would come to the aid of the Holy war. This isn't true.

1. Kelly is. has no way of knowing that Conphas would prevail at Kiyuth. Everyone was slaughtered, no sorcerers to send messages.

2. Upon reread, Cnaüir remarks that Saubon would learn of Conphas's treachery and come to the aid of the Holy War. He knew this for Ferdinand had no worries that the Holy War would be doomed. He said this to SS Sërwe when she was worried the Cish would prevail.
“No. I am your end. Before your eyes I will put your seed to the knife. I will quarter your carcass and feed it to the dogs. Your bones I will grind to dust and cast to the winds. I will strike down those who speak your name or the name of your fathers, until ‘Yursalka’ becomes as meaningless as infant babble. I will blot you out, hunt down your every trace! The track of your life has come to me,

Madness

  • *
  • Administrator
  • Old Name
  • *****
  • Conversational Batman
  • Posts: 4928
  • Strength on the Journey - Journey Well
    • View Profile
    • The Second Apocalypse
« Reply #7 on: June 24, 2017, 10:34:20 pm »
Lol, MSJ, I assume Ferdinand is autocorrect for Kellhus ;)?

I will preface this post by suggesting that this conversation ultimately is a question of how much of what we're debating Kellhus had mapped out or whether, as Walter suggested, that Kellhus ultimately would have lost to the Nansur/Fanim at Shimeh without Achamian's presence at the hilltop shrine.

Walter, rather than break down your post (I have a couple contentions with how you describe (OT) and (A)) I'll write out where I think we disagreed in our conversation in Quorum.

Firstly, if Achamian is not there, he doesn't stall the Nansur. We talked about how I figure Conphas would have established command on that hilltop and then sent his columns forward - merchant had some great quotes regarding figures and deployment in Quorum, it'd be nice if he (or someone) could quote them in thread as I lack my books. Poor recall on my part but I believe that means he's got at least some cavalry in the column with him and then three other columns coming up behind him. Without Achamian there, as far as I see it, Conphas deploys immediately.

Secondly, if Conphas isn't stalled by Achamian, when does Saubon hit Conphas? You and I disagreed on the timeline here, though, I don't especially think it matters. I argued in (A) that Conphas is killed in the same way he is in (OT) when Achamian is present, except that Conphas is just sitting there with his guard, trumpeters or flag-bearers, and Cememketri, as he'll have sent his own column forward as well. In the extreme version of my case, I argued that the columns would already be engaged with the Holy War and leaderless when Saubon and his portion of the Galeoth contingent strike them in the back, splitting the Nansur engagement to two fronts.

However, in the case above or in your suggestion (B) that Saubon ends up engaging Conphas' whole four columns before they move against the Holy War, I still think you give the Saik and the Nansur too much credit to their ability - though, you'd still have to account for me why you think Conphas would have just stood around waiting to get hit by Saubon in (B). merchant also brought up in his quotes in Quorum that one column straight up breaks and runs as soon as Conphas is taken out by Saubon so the Nansur discipline isn't as strong as you make it either.

There's also the issue of split fronts, cavalry, and Chorae. Now again, I'll have to rely on merchant (or others) for quotes but if there are four Saik and Cememketri with Conphas in one column, we can probably assume that he's got in the range of 12-20 sorcerers-of-rank split among his columns. We don't have a good indication of Saubon's forces or Chorae, unfortunately, but we can guess that the between the Holy War and Saubon's forces there are that many Chorae kicking around - the Holy War was already proving a boon to the Scarlet Spires against the Cishaurim and I made the argument that clearly the Inrithi had figured out some tradition of warring against Schools because they did so successfully during the Scholastic Wars. I assume that the Saik, like the Nansur, will be sufficiently engaged with the Holy War and Saubon is going to make a good dent into the Nansur's flank before anyone even realizes what's going on (especially, in (A) if Conphas dies by Saubon's hand before the Galeoth engage the Nansur).

Lol, kk, I think that's it. Sorry it took time to come back around to the conversation, Walter ;).

Hopefully, Wilshire will be drawn back in soon.
The Existential Scream
Weaponizing the Warrior Pose - Declare War Inwardly
carnificibus: multus sanguis fluit
Die Better
The Theory-Killer

Frail

  • *
  • Suthenti
  • *
  • Posts: 44
    • View Profile
« Reply #8 on: June 29, 2017, 01:25:57 am »
I believe that most of Kellhus's decisions are divinely conjured. Circumstances are bended for him. In this case Achamian is being pushed to create mayhem for the Nansur.

That being said, if Kellhus had teleported to Shimeh and saw the Nansur battling Saubon he would have just went that way and wrecked the empires forces.

Wilshire

  • *
  • Administrator
  • Old Name
  • *****
  • Enshoiya
  • Posts: 4881
  • Do you remember the words?!
    • View Profile
« Reply #9 on: July 17, 2017, 03:56:08 pm »
This thread probably deserves to be linked here:
http://www.second-apocalypse.com/index.php?topic=2147.msg33143#msg33143
One of the other conditions of possibility.