Am I Psychic? App

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Madness

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« Reply #15 on: August 27, 2017, 02:42:14 pm »
The criticism of the app, given that it is based in scientific peer-reviewed research brought me here. And of course I have heard of the GCP work of Dean Radin and Robert Morris.

I'm happy to be here also! I just wanted to clear the air on the app not being based in science. Thank you :)
How specifically did you find us though? I'm interested, seeing as we're a pretty niche community (and only happen to be discussing your app and project because I have an eclectic morning roundup).

He's psychic.

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But also, hilarious ;).
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Hogman

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« Reply #16 on: August 27, 2017, 05:50:05 pm »
Allow me to translate.

"Using established scientific methods..."

Translation:

"Using statistical tests that were never meant to be used in the way we're going to use them, we will produce a large number of false positive results to convince people they're psychic".

Hi there, totally understandable response. However I am going to direct you to a few of the academic journal articles which I based the app upon. I hope you read them :)

1. goo.gl/P7nYwG 
Correlations of Random Binary Sequences with Pre-Stated Operator Intention: A Review of a 12-Year Program (1997). J. Scientific Exploration, 11, No.3, pp.345-367.

2. goo.gl/QC3jbY   
Correlations of Continuous Random Data with Major World Events (2002). Foundations of Physics Letters, Vol. 15, No. 6, pp. 537-550.

3. goo.gl/irrBrg     
Consciousness, Information, and Living Systems (2005). Cellular & Molecular Biology, 51, pp.703-714.

4. goo.gl/b14wuqcontent_copyCopy short URL
Biological Utilisation of Quantum NonLocality (1991). Foundations of Physics, Vol. 21, pp. 197-207

Interesting articles. I didn't actually claim psychic abilities don't exist, although I personally don't believe in them. I was claiming that your app won't be able to determine their existence on an individual with any kind of accuracy.

Since psychic ability is largely shunned by the mainstream, we can take it that at least one of two things is true: psychic ability is "small", and/or it is rare. If it were "large" or commonplace it would be accepted by the mainstream.
If psychic abilities are "small" then you'll need thousands of tests to determine if an individual has them. See your first reference for a perfect example - in table 1, column HI, they had 839,800 repetitions of 200 Bernoulli trials to get a mean difference of 0.026 in the number of successes. They couldn't even achieve a mean difference of 1.
If psychic abilities are rare then your app will suffer from the notorious problem of having very poor positive predictive value. This article describes it: http://www.badscience.net/2006/12/crystal-balls-and-positive-predictive-values/

Am I Psychic?

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« Reply #17 on: August 28, 2017, 10:16:46 am »
The criticism of the app, given that it is based in scientific peer-reviewed research brought me here. And of course I have heard of the GCP work of Dean Radin and Robert Morris.

I'm happy to be here also! I just wanted to clear the air on the app not being based in science. Thank you :)

How specifically did you find us though? I'm interested, seeing as we're a pretty niche community (and only happen to be discussing your app and project because I have an eclectic morning roundup).

An article was written about the app recently on CNET, and this forum was on the third page of search results. I debated about responding at all, but one of the goals of the app is to present parapsychology to a wider audience, so with that in mind I responded.

Am I Psychic?

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« Reply #18 on: August 28, 2017, 10:29:04 am »
Allow me to translate.

"Using established scientific methods..."

Translation:

"Using statistical tests that were never meant to be used in the way we're going to use them, we will produce a large number of false positive results to convince people they're psychic".

Hi there, totally understandable response. However I am going to direct you to a few of the academic journal articles which I based the app upon. I hope you read them :)

1. goo.gl/P7nYwG 
Correlations of Random Binary Sequences with Pre-Stated Operator Intention: A Review of a 12-Year Program (1997). J. Scientific Exploration, 11, No.3, pp.345-367.

2. goo.gl/QC3jbY   
Correlations of Continuous Random Data with Major World Events (2002). Foundations of Physics Letters, Vol. 15, No. 6, pp. 537-550.

3. goo.gl/irrBrg     
Consciousness, Information, and Living Systems (2005). Cellular & Molecular Biology, 51, pp.703-714.

4. goo.gl/b14wuqcontent_copyCopy short URL
Biological Utilisation of Quantum NonLocality (1991). Foundations of Physics, Vol. 21, pp. 197-207

Interesting articles. I didn't actually claim psychic abilities don't exist, although I personally don't believe in them. I was claiming that your app won't be able to determine their existence on an individual with any kind of accuracy.

Since psychic ability is largely shunned by the mainstream, we can take it that at least one of two things is true: psychic ability is "small", and/or it is rare. If it were "large" or commonplace it would be accepted by the mainstream.
If psychic abilities are "small" then you'll need thousands of tests to determine if an individual has them. See your first reference for a perfect example - in table 1, column HI, they had 839,800 repetitions of 200 Bernoulli trials to get a mean difference of 0.026 in the number of successes. They couldn't even achieve a mean difference of 1.
If psychic abilities are rare then your app will suffer from the notorious problem of having very poor positive predictive value. This article describes it: http://www.badscience.net/2006/12/crystal-balls-and-positive-predictive-values/

I can explain how the app can correctly determine whether psychic ability is present. For individual users, after each test is completed, the app transitions into a results screen which shows the deviation from chance, albeit not using a p-value (I wanted to make the results screen easy to read for those without a statistical background). While one test deviating from chance does not mean the user is psychic, if the user is able to consistently achieve a deviation from chance, that would be something to explore further.
Having said that, the big picture in determining if psychic ability is present is that within the "cloud" of the app there is an anonymous database where the information from each test is stored. Once a large enough body of data has been accumulated, a meta-analysis of the data can be made which would then mathematically determine whether or not psychic ability is being demonstrated.
To your point of psychic ability being a "small" effect. You are correct. Research shows that these abilities are not of a sufficient magnitude to normally be detectable. While there have been many instances of dramatic demonstrations of psychic ability in the literature, in general psychic ability is a small effect. Having said that, while the effect may be "small", an effect is still present. Which is why in the studies I previously cited meta-analysis was used. The effect would be undetectable otherwise. Once a large enough body of data has been accumulated, then we can see whether the results from the app is demonstrating an effect.
Finally, just as an aside, the app is registered with the IRB, and is a legitimate parapsychological experiment. The idea was to create something fun that anyone could play, while the real science was going on in the background.
I appreciate your skepticism. I'm not sure whether or not the app will show that psychic ability exists, only time will tell on that.
« Last Edit: August 28, 2017, 10:30:48 am by Am I Psychic? »

Hogman

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« Reply #19 on: August 28, 2017, 11:37:37 am »
I can explain how the app can correctly determine whether psychic ability is present. For individual users, after each test is completed, the app transitions into a results screen which shows the deviation from chance, albeit not using a p-value (I wanted to make the results screen easy to read for those without a statistical background). While one test deviating from chance does not mean the user is psychic, if the user is able to consistently achieve a deviation from chance, that would be something to explore further.
Having said that, the big picture in determining if psychic ability is present is that within the "cloud" of the app there is an anonymous database where the information from each test is stored. Once a large enough body of data has been accumulated, a meta-analysis of the data can be made which would then mathematically determine whether or not psychic ability is being demonstrated.
To your point of psychic ability being a "small" effect. You are correct. Research shows that these abilities are not of a sufficient magnitude to normally be detectable. While there have been many instances of dramatic demonstrations of psychic ability in the literature, in general psychic ability is a small effect. Having said that, while the effect may be "small", an effect is still present. Which is why in the studies I previously cited meta-analysis was used. The effect would be undetectable otherwise. Once a large enough body of data has been accumulated, then we can see whether the results from the app is demonstrating an effect.
Finally, just as an aside, the app is registered with the IRB, and is a legitimate parapsychological experiment. The idea was to create something fun that anyone could play, while the real science was going on in the background.
I appreciate your skepticism. I'm not sure whether or not the app will show that psychic ability exists, only time will tell on that.

In that case I wish you luck. I hadn't appreciated what was going on behind the scenes.  :)

And don't apologise for not using p-values! They simplify potentially complicated results into a black white answer, that allows people to be lazy in interpreting results.

tleilaxu

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« Reply #20 on: August 28, 2017, 12:30:34 pm »
Is there a way the test can reveal if you're anti-psychic? Like, you have the ability to nullify others' psychic abilities.

Wilshire

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« Reply #21 on: August 28, 2017, 04:37:39 pm »
The criticism of the app, given that it is based in scientific peer-reviewed research brought me here. And of course I have heard of the GCP work of Dean Radin and Robert Morris.

I'm happy to be here also! I just wanted to clear the air on the app not being based in science. Thank you :)

How specifically did you find us though? I'm interested, seeing as we're a pretty niche community (and only happen to be discussing your app and project because I have an eclectic morning roundup).

An article was written about the app recently on CNET, and this forum was on the third page of search results. I debated about responding at all, but one of the goals of the app is to present parapsychology to a wider audience, so with that in mind I responded.
Very cool.

The idea was to create something fun that anyone could play, while the real science was going on in the background.
This to me sounds like a great idea, and I applaud you for the insight. I think too often people assume that if they stick "Science!" in front of a statement that they deserve to be believed outright, which instead just alienates people and leads to, again imo, this cultural shift in trusting science to seeing it as just another mysticism that only the 'anointed' can seen. Things like this, which draws in participants, might be helpful in reversing that trend.

I appreciate your skepticism. I'm not sure whether or not the app will show that psychic ability exists, only time will tell on that.
Hey look, real science at work. ^ :)
One of the other conditions of possibility.

Madness

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« Reply #22 on: August 28, 2017, 09:44:28 pm »
An article was written about the app recently on CNET, and this forum was on the third page of search results. I debated about responding at all, but one of the goals of the app is to present parapsychology to a wider audience, so with that in mind I responded.

Lol. Third page. I admire your rigour.

Thanks for reaching out :).


...

Finally, just as an aside, the app is registered with the IRB, and is a legitimate parapsychological experiment. The idea was to create something fun that anyone could play, while the real science was going on in the background.
I appreciate your skepticism. I'm not sure whether or not the app will show that psychic ability exists, only time will tell on that.

Amazing. I mean, I only shared it because I enjoy the crux of research projects sourcing the public at large, through popular mediums like apps, and, as you mentioned, bringing "parapsychology to a wider audience" (which I believe is a misnomer, by the way, as parapsychology - para-anything - just seems to be a prejorative term for subjects which are supposedly somehow outside science's purview).

An article was written about the app recently on CNET, and this forum was on the third page of search results. I debated about responding at all, but one of the goals of the app is to present parapsychology to a wider audience, so with that in mind I responded.

Very cool.

Ridiculous even ;).

The idea was to create something fun that anyone could play, while the real science was going on in the background.

This to me sounds like a great idea, and I applaud you for the insight.

+1

I appreciate your skepticism. I'm not sure whether or not the app will show that psychic ability exists, only time will tell on that.

Hey look, real science at work. ^ :)

;)
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Madness

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« Reply #23 on: August 28, 2017, 09:45:19 pm »
Now I suppose I'm going to have to download the app and actually contribute ;).
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« Reply #24 on: September 02, 2017, 10:29:47 am »
Is there a way the test can reveal if you're anti-psychic? Like, you have the ability to nullify others' psychic abilities.

Research has shown that there is an effect where certain people consistently perform far below what would be expected by chance. The effect is called "psi missing".

Sorry about the late response. I've been at an academic conference for a week. I appreciate all of the questions btw.

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« Reply #25 on: September 02, 2017, 10:33:26 am »
Now I suppose I'm going to have to download the app and actually contribute ;).

That would be great! Contribute away! Also some of the profits are being donated to the Rhine Research Center (the oldest parapsychological lab in the USA). Not sure if I mentioned that before, but there it is.