Speculiction's What Comes Next!

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Cynical Cat

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« on: September 19, 2017, 07:23:54 am »
[EDIT Madness: I'm splitting the thread because Speculiction's TUC review followup spawned so much conversation. Continue :)!]

It's interesting and terribly flawed.  He says the Three Seas' manpower is depleted and that's incorrect.  The Anasurimbor Regime's manpower is massively depleted.  There's plenty of manpower left behind in the Three Seas, especially in Zeum.  That's not to downplay the loss of most of the Anasurimbor's reliable troops and leaders, but that still leaves behind most of the male population of the Three Seas. The loss of so many Chorae and Schoolmen is more severe.  For comparison sake, a well regarded estimate of the population of the Roman Empire at 14 CE is 45,000,000.  It's the totality of losses among the most capable opponents of Mog-Pheru, not the numbers in of themselves, that is devastating.
« Last Edit: September 20, 2017, 05:54:19 pm by Madness »

TaoHorror

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« Reply #1 on: September 19, 2017, 02:16:47 pm »
Exactly - the book says population of 75 million, the Ordeal was 300,000 at start - leaving an enormous number of men left to ... to die at the hands of the No-God
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Sausuna

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« Reply #2 on: September 19, 2017, 02:42:49 pm »
Exactly - the book says population of 75 million, the Ordeal was 300,000 at start - leaving an enormous number of men left to ... to die at the hands of the No-God
When is 75 million given, if you don't mind me asking? Was actually looking around per this discussion.

TaoHorror

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« Reply #3 on: September 19, 2017, 04:52:40 pm »
Exactly - the book says population of 75 million, the Ordeal was 300,000 at start - leaving an enormous number of men left to ... to die at the hands of the No-God
When is 75 million given, if you don't mind me asking? Was actually looking around per this discussion.

Aw, fudge - thought it was in the beginning of TUC, but can't find it. Hope I'm not remembering something not "official", like the intro to a review or something. I'll try to hunt it down. Maybe saw it in an advertisement for the book/series.
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MSJ

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« Reply #4 on: September 19, 2017, 05:55:12 pm »
Exactly - the book says population of 75 million, the Ordeal was 300,000 at start - leaving an enormous number of men left to ... to die at the hands of the No-God
When is 75 million given, if you don't mind me asking? Was actually looking around per this discussion.

Aw, fudge - thought it was in the beginning of TUC, but can't find it. Hope I'm not remembering something not "official", like the intro to a review or something. I'll try to hunt it down. Maybe saw it in an advertisement for the book/series.

It's a huge number regardless. And that's just Earwa. What about Eanna, the continent to the south, who know if people lie across the great ocean. Remember, Bakker said that the edges of his maps will never be filled in. Earwa is just a continent on this world, and maybe not even that. And we know magic works in Eanna, and the whole of this world relates to the Outside in the same manner. Maybe, what killed the NG the first time was simply the time limit. It couldn't kill enough souls in the matter of time it has.
“No. I am your end. Before your eyes I will put your seed to the knife. I will quarter your carcass and feed it to the dogs. Your bones I will grind to dust and cast to the winds. I will strike down those who speak your name or the name of your fathers, until ‘Yursalka’ becomes as meaningless as infant babble. I will blot you out, hunt down your every trace! The track of your life has come to me,

Sausuna

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« Reply #5 on: September 19, 2017, 06:02:43 pm »
Eh, that would seem kind of boring and against the tone as well. 'It wasn't the Heron Spear, the No-God just ran out of time. The world can never end because it's too big.' I think the idea of the time limit is just so that there isn't an excuse in the narrative for the No-God to just turtle in Golgotteroth forever, which would be a pretty unbeatable strategy at this point.

The reason I'm curious what the actual number is because the Great Ordeal seemed to constantly stress how it was the biggest gathering of martial men since even far antiquity or something. How the entire empire had formed the military mass of the Three Seas. It'd be a bit silly to me if there are still significant numbers of military hosts out there.

Now, don't get me wrong. Clearly there are some. The Fanim had enough to wage war still. Zeum has some amount of troops. The Empire still had some. But idk, seems like they'd be in a pretty bad position.

MSJ

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« Reply #6 on: September 19, 2017, 06:04:01 pm »
Speculiction did a second review/addendum/piece on TUC!

This parallels exactly the conversation me and Wilshire had. I think up to the TNG was this story Bakker created as a teen and honed during his writing process. But, I believe as the reviewer does, that ultimately Bakker has faith in humanity. And that TNG will be his lesson that humanity doesn't need God's and heroes and such. We just need each other. I know it won't be some sappy B.S., thats not Bakker either. But, I do agree that he will show that humanity will prevail. And, to borrow a line from that review, "Why just drive the nail deeper in the coffin?". It makes no sense for that to be the case, TUC would've been enough.
« Last Edit: September 19, 2017, 06:15:13 pm by MSJ »
“No. I am your end. Before your eyes I will put your seed to the knife. I will quarter your carcass and feed it to the dogs. Your bones I will grind to dust and cast to the winds. I will strike down those who speak your name or the name of your fathers, until ‘Yursalka’ becomes as meaningless as infant babble. I will blot you out, hunt down your every trace! The track of your life has come to me,

MSJ

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« Reply #7 on: September 19, 2017, 06:09:47 pm »
Eh, that would seem kind of boring and against the tone as well. 'It wasn't the Heron Spear, the No-God just ran out of time. The world can never end because it's too big.' I think the idea of the time limit is just so that there isn't an excuse in the narrative for the No-God to just turtle in Golgotteroth forever, which would be a pretty unbeatable strategy at this point.

But, do you agree that Akka's dreams show the truth of what happened during the 1st apocalypse? I do, and I think it's made clear by textual evidence. And Akka has a dream where the Heron Spear doesn't kill TNG. And, I don't think it did. I like it better if it didn't too. I'm hoping that it was killed a la' Mimara, a answering his questions and somehow "undoing" him. I agree, running out of time does seem lame, but it's definitely an option. And, regardless, your reason for wanting to know the numbers, you still have to take into account these other land masses, which we have proof of sorcery working there, hence connected to the Outside. You have to take all that into consideration.
“No. I am your end. Before your eyes I will put your seed to the knife. I will quarter your carcass and feed it to the dogs. Your bones I will grind to dust and cast to the winds. I will strike down those who speak your name or the name of your fathers, until ‘Yursalka’ becomes as meaningless as infant babble. I will blot you out, hunt down your every trace! The track of your life has come to me,

Sausuna

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« Reply #8 on: September 19, 2017, 06:32:48 pm »
Eh, that would seem kind of boring and against the tone as well. 'It wasn't the Heron Spear, the No-God just ran out of time. The world can never end because it's too big.' I think the idea of the time limit is just so that there isn't an excuse in the narrative for the No-God to just turtle in Golgotteroth forever, which would be a pretty unbeatable strategy at this point.

But, do you agree that Akka's dreams show the truth of what happened during the 1st apocalypse? I do, and I think it's made clear by textual evidence. And Akka has a dream where the Heron Spear doesn't kill TNG. And, I don't think it did. I like it better if it didn't too. I'm hoping that it was killed a la' Mimara, a answering his questions and somehow "undoing" him. I agree, running out of time does seem lame, but it's definitely an option. And, regardless, your reason for wanting to know the numbers, you still have to take into account these other land masses, which we have proof of sorcery working there, hence connected to the Outside. You have to take all that into consideration.
I think Akka's dreams raise a lot of questions, but no, I'm not necessarily in agreement that what he saw was the true sequence of events. I'll say it is possible. And it is possible something else resulted in the No-God's death as well. But I don't think there is enough to give it a lot of weight yet. If something else does come into play, so be it. But the time limit would be the most boring to me.

As for other land masses, their existence is largely moot, besides Eanna, which will probably play some role given Bakker's words about it. That said, we hardly know what role that is. For all we know, they discover the rest of the world died by Consult machinations.

But either way, they only matter in-so-far as Bakker will make them matter. I really don't think (in the same vein as the time limit) the existence of other land masses is something that will come up as a big problem for the No-God because their purpose is more 'there is other stuff out there'. Not as a roadblock for what happens next. If all these other people rallied from different continents, kind of hurts it even being the Apocalypse if there is still such manpower to oppose it. That's just my take on it.

I feel like someone asked if the No-God was felt on other continent's/had an effect (death of birth), but I can't for the life of me recall if that was an actual answered question...

SmilerLoki

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« Reply #9 on: September 19, 2017, 08:59:59 pm »
But I don't think there is enough to give it a lot of weight yet.
This is my take also.

MSJ

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« Reply #10 on: September 19, 2017, 11:45:55 pm »
But I don't think there is enough to give it a lot of weight yet.
This is my take also.

How not? He dreams of where the map will be in the Library of Sauglish, about Celmommas making Ishual, about Nayu being betrayed by his wife, Nayu being a blooded, tormented, toothless wretch, dragged under the IF and put into the Carapace, just like Kellhus is told. You have the Celmommian prophecy through the eyes of Celmommas his self and see how its mistranslated. Everything his new dreams are true and we have textual evidence for nearly all of it. So why would this one dream not be true, and why isn't that not enough evidence? Because, fellows, we don't get straight up yes or no's in this series. You have to figure it out, put the pieces together. Akka's dreams being true is the easily the most verifiable.
“No. I am your end. Before your eyes I will put your seed to the knife. I will quarter your carcass and feed it to the dogs. Your bones I will grind to dust and cast to the winds. I will strike down those who speak your name or the name of your fathers, until ‘Yursalka’ becomes as meaningless as infant babble. I will blot you out, hunt down your every trace! The track of your life has come to me,

Cynical Cat

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« Reply #11 on: September 20, 2017, 12:11:50 am »
Eh, that would seem kind of boring and against the tone as well. 'It wasn't the Heron Spear, the No-God just ran out of time. The world can never end because it's too big.' I think the idea of the time limit is just so that there isn't an excuse in the narrative for the No-God to just turtle in Golgotteroth forever, which would be a pretty unbeatable strategy at this point.

The reason I'm curious what the actual number is because the Great Ordeal seemed to constantly stress how it was the biggest gathering of martial men since even far antiquity or something. How the entire empire had formed the military mass of the Three Seas. It'd be a bit silly to me if there are still significant numbers of military hosts out there.

Now, don't get me wrong. Clearly there are some. The Fanim had enough to wage war still. Zeum has some amount of troops. The Empire still had some. But idk, seems like they'd be in a pretty bad position.


It's important to distinguish between whether or not the losses are devastating (which they are) and whether or not they deplete the manpower of an Empire. In normal circumstances, only a small portion of a state's population directly serves in the military.  The best estimate of the giant army that the Persian Empire sent to invade Greece is somewhere around 200,000 men.  300,000 is a credible number for the largest number in Earwa's history, but it's loss is only a small percentage of the Anasurimbor Empire's manpower.  It used to be a structure imposed on a population that was in no small part composed of Fanim and Orthodox convinced to submit at the point of a sword.  That's why it started to fall apart when its military and sorcerous elite departed.  The remaining forces weren't strong enough to repress the dissent.

While the loss of so many experienced soldiers, leaders, and Schoolmen is devastating to the state's ability to wage war, the situation has changed.  The No-God's presence can be felt by all and while unity is not guaranteed, Mog-Pheru is as much as a goad as the Inverse Fire.  The war that comes will be a total war of survival, where every able bodied person is helping whether by growing food, treating the wounded, building defenses, or bearing arms.  There are still are the soldiers who remain in the Anasurimbor Empire, Zeum's full might, and whatever else might come from outside.  The Orthodox faithful and the Fanim survivors who would never draw weapons for the Anasurimbor will take up arms against the No-God. The Schools have been reduced to old men and boys (or old women and girls), with the notable exception of Zeum's.  We don't know how many, if any, escape the slaughter of the Great Ordeal, but a disproportionate number of survivors are likely to be Schoolmen.  The Nonmen Quya, who are all survivors of multiple disasters at Golgotterath, might have mostly survived.  Of course, we also know that while men believe the Wracu have diminished in numbers we also know that they tend to avoid men and the battle of Sauglish revealed that young Wracu were there so they can breed.  There might be a dragon horde waiting in the far mountains.

As for the No-God being on the clock, it makes narrative sense (no turtling in the super fortress) as well as logical sense.  A crucial component is biological and nature and whatever the Sarcophagus does to those entombed it doesn't sound like it's good for the subject's long term health. 

JerakoKayne

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« Reply #12 on: September 20, 2017, 12:28:16 am »

You have the Celmommian prophecy through the eyes of Celmommas his self and see how its mistranslated.


A slight tangent, but this would be helpful for some speculation I've had that's been nagging at me. But I can't find this passage. Could you point me to it, please?

SmilerLoki

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« Reply #13 on: September 20, 2017, 12:39:11 am »
Akka's dreams being true is the easily the most verifiable.
The simple answer would be, not even close. Being more elaborate, I can propose several reasons.

Let's take one thing into consideration before everything else. Achamian watches the same events happening differently depending on which dream he sees them in. This alone puts the credibility of his dreams into question. But there is more. He sees things he shouldn't see by definition, considering the nature of Seswatha's Dreams as it's explained by the Mandate. He should see events from Seswatha's perspective, since it's Seswatha's heart he was holding in the Grasping. Yet he now sees things through the eyes of Celmomas and Nau-Cayuti. Why? There is no explanation.

Nayu being a blooded, tormented, toothless wretch, dragged under the IF and put into the Carapace, just like Kellhus is told.
Achamian doesn't see Nau-Cayuti being put into the Carapace. He sees him in the line for it. The Mutilated later confirm that Nau-Cayuti was the first Insertant, but that's it. There is nothing more said about it, no mention of torture that would corroborate Achamian's dream.

You have the Celmommian prophecy through the eyes of Celmommas his self and see how its mistranslated.
This is easily the least credible of Achamian's dreams since it brings no new information, only raising additional questions. It doesn't narrow anything down, it opens the way for so many interpretations the whole exercise becomes counterproductive instantly.

Everything his new dreams are true and we have textual evidence for nearly all of it.
All of those things except the map to Ishual are either conjectures that could've easily been made by the characters without his dreams or just wild inconsistencies that contradict previously mentioned or recorded Seswatha's dreams and historic facts. The map to Ishual, for example, doesn't contradict anything, so I don't see how it can be viewed in the same light as the dreams that do.

You have to figure it out, put the pieces together.
This is why I'm loath to jump to convenient conclusions. Achamian's dreams being strictly true is exactly this kind of neatly bow-tied resolution that the books themselves warn us against.

Sausuna

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« Reply #14 on: September 20, 2017, 04:16:42 am »
Eh, that would seem kind of boring and against the tone as well. 'It wasn't the Heron Spear, the No-God just ran out of time. The world can never end because it's too big.' I think the idea of the time limit is just so that there isn't an excuse in the narrative for the No-God to just turtle in Golgotteroth forever, which would be a pretty unbeatable strategy at this point.

The reason I'm curious what the actual number is because the Great Ordeal seemed to constantly stress how it was the biggest gathering of martial men since even far antiquity or something. How the entire empire had formed the military mass of the Three Seas. It'd be a bit silly to me if there are still significant numbers of military hosts out there.

Now, don't get me wrong. Clearly there are some. The Fanim had enough to wage war still. Zeum has some amount of troops. The Empire still had some. But idk, seems like they'd be in a pretty bad position.


It's important to distinguish between whether or not the losses are devastating (which they are) and whether or not they deplete the manpower of an Empire. In normal circumstances, only a small portion of a state's population directly serves in the military.  The best estimate of the giant army that the Persian Empire sent to invade Greece is somewhere around 200,000 men.  300,000 is a credible number for the largest number in Earwa's history, but it's loss is only a small percentage of the Anasurimbor Empire's manpower.  It used to be a structure imposed on a population that was in no small part composed of Fanim and Orthodox convinced to submit at the point of a sword.  That's why it started to fall apart when its military and sorcerous elite departed.  The remaining forces weren't strong enough to repress the dissent.

While the loss of so many experienced soldiers, leaders, and Schoolmen is devastating to the state's ability to wage war, the situation has changed.  The No-God's presence can be felt by all and while unity is not guaranteed, Mog-Pheru is as much as a goad as the Inverse Fire.  The war that comes will be a total war of survival, where every able bodied person is helping whether by growing food, treating the wounded, building defenses, or bearing arms.  There are still are the soldiers who remain in the Anasurimbor Empire, Zeum's full might, and whatever else might come from outside.  The Orthodox faithful and the Fanim survivors who would never draw weapons for the Anasurimbor will take up arms against the No-God. The Schools have been reduced to old men and boys (or old women and girls), with the notable exception of Zeum's.  We don't know how many, if any, escape the slaughter of the Great Ordeal, but a disproportionate number of survivors are likely to be Schoolmen.  The Nonmen Quya, who are all survivors of multiple disasters at Golgotterath, might have mostly survived.  Of course, we also know that while men believe the Wracu have diminished in numbers we also know that they tend to avoid men and the battle of Sauglish revealed that young Wracu were there so they can breed.  There might be a dragon horde waiting in the far mountains.

As for the No-God being on the clock, it makes narrative sense (no turtling in the super fortress) as well as logical sense.  A crucial component is biological and nature and whatever the Sarcophagus does to those entombed it doesn't sound like it's good for the subject's long term health.
Do we actually have any numbers on the remaining population and how many are combat trained? Otherwise, I'm really not buying into the comparison. And I'm just not seeing the No-God's presence as enough for some, all things considered. This is a land that was already fomenting with revolt, both from the slaves whose gods are blind and the high ups who were not a fan of being yolked. The Fanim waged war and Momen was struck by an earthquake. Now we're adding in likely knowledge that the Aspect-Emperor was killed, significant nobles/leadership (Zeum's leader might still be killed as well), and sorcerers. Men, being fallible as they are, are as likely to fail to come together to take the action necessary. There is a reason the first Apocalypse was that, nearly the end of the world. Things just seem a lot worse for the world than that era.


@MSJ - I just don't think we know nearly enough. We have no clue why his dreams might have changed. And from what I recall (I don't have TTT), the missing dream was both explicitly different than his typical recollection (could be off, not sure), was after a fever, and the rest of his dreams didn't really change for another 20 years. And if other dreams have shown the spear work and all reports of the event cooperate, I think this specific fact could be an exception.