Are we still on Moenghus Sr TTT?

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TaoHorror

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« on: September 05, 2018, 12:25:16 pm »
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Has anyone ever mentioned anything about Leweth's dialogue with Kellhus where he mentions "The forest seemed to... beckon to me..." or something like that?

It sparked some thoughts about whether or not it could be reference to Moenghus preparing the way.

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... Moe Sr will still save us all

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Somehow moenghus engineered the death of leweths wife knowing he would move to the remote country side and eventually encounter his son whom he would need 30 years later

We could well be on Moe Sr's TTT. A few things may have tripped him up ( going blind for the wrong reasons - but this may be part of the path, I found it curious he would make that error, to not understand the Psuke and himself to know it would be folly - so could be part of the "plan". Kellhus's madness threw him and he had to recalculate on the fly - maybe he figured out his son was possessed and recalculated he had to have his son kill him to reorient the TTT to continue? Or appear to kill him? The Chisarum were very good at cloak and dagger, people hiding in other people, etc.
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Wilshire

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« Reply #1 on: September 05, 2018, 02:11:53 pm »
Moenghus Sr. is absolutely dead and gone. This a topic that has been pretty well beaten to death lol, but if there are those who would like to cover it go ahead. I'll try to sit that one out.

Are we still part of Moenghus' TTT is a different question. It does depend pretty heavily on what the present incarnation of TTT actually is, what Moenghus' TTT was, and whether or not any TTT is an extension of Moe's original idea. That it grew beyond Moe doesn't mean that the conclusion it reached is inaccurate.
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TaoHorror

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« Reply #2 on: September 05, 2018, 06:54:37 pm »
Moenghus Sr. is absolutely dead and gone.

We thought Cniur was dead and gone too ...
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« Reply #3 on: September 10, 2018, 05:52:28 pm »
Well, I think the biggest strike against it is the question of how it could, or would have, accounted for Kellhus to being off The Shortest Path.

Also, the question of why Kellhus prediction of what Moe would do is wrong, i.e. why would Moe not have ended up on the same path as the Mutilated?

No, I think it is more likely that Moe died because he misapprehended the nature of the Outside and how influential it could be.
“I am a warrior of ages, Anasūrimbor . . . ages. I have dipped my nimil in a thousand hearts. I have ridden both against and for the No-God in the great wars that authored this wilderness. I have scaled the ramparts of great Golgotterath, watched the hearts of High Kings break for fury.” -Cet’ingira

TLEILAXU

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« Reply #4 on: September 10, 2018, 06:42:28 pm »
No, I think it is more likely that Moe died because he misapprehended the nature of the Outside and how influential it could be.
I think Moėnghus' main mistake is not realizing that occasionally, the God does wake up..

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"Men cannot see this because of their native incapaci­ties. They attend only to what confirms their fears and their desires, and what contradicts they either dismiss or overlook. They are bent upon affirmation. The priests crow over this or that incident, while they pass over all others in silence. I have watched, my son, for years I have counted, and the world shows no favour. It is perfectly indifferent to the tantrums of men.

"The God sleeps... It has ever been thus. Only by striv­ing for the Absolute may we awaken Him. Meaning. Purpose. These words name not something given... no, they name our task."

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« Reply #5 on: September 10, 2018, 06:51:49 pm »
I think Moėnghus' main mistake is not realizing that occasionally, the God does wake up..

Yeah, that is the more succinct way to put it, I couldn't recall the quote.  Like Koringhus realizes that the Absolute is not passive, Moe does not realize that the Outside can be active.  Interestingly nearly inverted in a way.
“I am a warrior of ages, Anasūrimbor . . . ages. I have dipped my nimil in a thousand hearts. I have ridden both against and for the No-God in the great wars that authored this wilderness. I have scaled the ramparts of great Golgotterath, watched the hearts of High Kings break for fury.” -Cet’ingira

Wilshire

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« Reply #6 on: September 10, 2018, 07:16:14 pm »
I find that quote very amusing.

Basically: "Ha! These humans are so stupid, thinking that the god is awake. If only they were as smart as me, they would realize that the god could be awake."

Oh here we go, I figured it out!
See, Moenghus can't see the paradox in his statement so he is a skin spy. Luckily, he's a skin-spy wielding the psuke to mask his skin-spy mask so kellhus doesn't notice, meaning that the thing that [didnt] die when cnaiur rolled a chorae across its face wasn't Moenghus at all, but a skin-spy wearing a psuke mask. Likely one being mind-controlled with invisible metapsuke-compulsions.  OH, so that means one of the chained skin spies was actually Moenghus hiding behind a super-psyke glamor making it look like a skin spy so Kellhus didn't notice.

Its so obvious now that I've written it down.

...
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« Reply #7 on: September 10, 2018, 08:05:21 pm »
I find that quote very amusing.

Basically: "Ha! These humans are so stupid, thinking that the god is awake. If only they were as smart as me, they would realize that the god could be awake."

Oh here we go, I figured it out!
See, Moenghus can't see the paradox in his statement so he is a skin spy. Luckily, he's a skin-spy wielding the psuke to mask his skin-spy mask so kellhus doesn't notice, meaning that the thing that [didnt] die when cnaiur rolled a chorae across its face wasn't Moenghus at all, but a skin-spy wearing a psuke mask. Likely one being mind-controlled with invisible metapsuke-compulsions.  OH, so that means one of the chained skin spies was actually Moenghus hiding behind a super-psyke glamor making it look like a skin spy so Kellhus didn't notice.

Its so obvious now that I've written it down.

...

What's the plural of Moėnghus?

Moėnghuses?  Moėnghuii?

Well, it's Moėnghuii all the way down, man...
“I am a warrior of ages, Anasūrimbor . . . ages. I have dipped my nimil in a thousand hearts. I have ridden both against and for the No-God in the great wars that authored this wilderness. I have scaled the ramparts of great Golgotterath, watched the hearts of High Kings break for fury.” -Cet’ingira

TaoHorror

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« Reply #8 on: September 11, 2018, 12:53:27 am »
One of the reasons I brought this up is that if we take the Dunyain ability to path the future with any accuracy, then they can't be wrong - you start the path and it happens. Is Moe simply incorrect? It's the "probability trance", so error is baked in and it should still work? Kellhus going "mad" threw him, he wasn't expecting it and was recalculating the path in real time during their conversation ( or so he was saying, that conversation could've been part of the TTT ). Either prescience ( by intellect, divine or magic ) either works or it doesn't. Is this some message that the reader/anyone beware of anyone/anything claiming prescience? Does the story teach us lessons - like be careful of whom you worship/trust? Was this whole TTT just a fool's gambit? Or is it still working ( either Moe's or Kell's or ... ). Sorta like Herbert's when 2 prescients are in company with each other, it darkens their future views ( as they can now directly effect each other making future telling impossible ). Would Moe's TTT have "worked" if no one else was employing the Probability Trance? With the Mutilated, Kellhus and Moe Sr and who knows who else leveraging this ability, is the collision/contention with each other the driver behind all that we've seen? Or is it all laid to waste simply by divine intervention, the TTT being unable to account for Outside activities? Just seems the TTT was too important ( name of even one of the books ) for it to be flushed in this manner is all. Everything you've read up til now has been error is too much surprise to my thinking. Someone's plan is cooking, me thinks. Otherwise it's all a colorful exercise in reading chaos.
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Wilshire

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« Reply #9 on: September 11, 2018, 02:14:09 pm »
What's the plural of Moėnghus?

Moėnghuses?  Moėnghuii?

Well, it's Moėnghuii all the way down, man...
I like that. Or maybe, Moenghati

---

Great post TH!. Wish you had started with this :) .

One of the reasons I brought this up is that if we take the Dunyain ability to path the future with any accuracy, then they can't be wrong - you start the path and it happens.
I don't think so, you describe why below.
Is Moe simply incorrect?
It's the "probability trance", so error is baked in and it should still work?
Kellhus going "mad" threw him, he wasn't expecting it and was recalculating the path in real time during their conversation ( or so he was saying, that conversation could've been part of the TTT ).
Yes.
Its a probability trance, not certainty trance. Sometimes unlikely outcomes happen. Sometimes you discount the possability that your son will come through his trial a raving mad lunatic, and sometimes that's the mistake that kills you.

Either prescience ( by intellect, divine or magic ) either works or it doesn't.
No. Its not prescience in that its not a prophesy of the future. Its cause-and-effect predictions based on input data using statistical methods to produce potential outcomes.

Just like any mathmatical model, garbage in equals garbage out. Worse yet, if your assumptions at the start are wrong, everything you did is garbage.

Is this some message that the reader/anyone beware of anyone/anything claiming prescience?
I don't think so. Certain 'beware of anyone peddling snake oil' and/or 'don't take things at face value, especially when the thing is question is someone caliming divine right'.

Does the story teach us lessons - like be careful of whom you worship/trust?
Probably

Was this whole TTT just a fool's gambit?
Depends what you think the TTT is. There's little consensus even among us.

IMO Moenghus is pretty straightforward with his description. TTT is a name he used for the big convergence of decades of probability trance-ing, and describes Moenghus' solution to the Human Extermination Problem - the fact that there is an alien species trying to blog out humans. Moe is a human, so he doesn't like this, so he has tried to set in motion a very specific string of events to prevent it.

Was it a fools gambit? How does one decide such things? I would say no, it was a brilliant gambit - after all, no one else was doing anything to stop it.

Or is it still working ( either Moe's or Kell's or ... ).
Since its a construct of an extrapolation of the PT, "It" isn't doing anything. Kellhus, as the one in charge of events, had his own plan. He called it TTT as well.

Sorta like Herbert's when 2 prescients are in company with each other, it darkens their future views ( as they can now directly effect each other making future telling impossible ).
I'd liken it a bit closer to the Seldon Plan a la Asimov, but Herbert and Leto's Golden Path / Melange Prescience is a good analogy as well, yes.

Would Moe's TTT have "worked" if no one else was employing the Probability Trance?
No I don't think so. His plan didn't work because he didn't isolate improbable outcomes enough. His entire plan was pinned on the hope that Kellhus made it to him alive and sane.

He did the best he could with the time and resources available. It just wasn't enough though. He tells us his goal was to unite humanity under one religion, and use that united humanity to challenege the consult before it was too late. But Kellhus needed another 30ish years to do the second half - no matter what, it was a multi-generational plan, and further needed a full Dunyain to take over the plan. The only Dunyain available to him that he could think of was Kellhus. The only path that got him there AND left the world enough time to marshal a defense before the Consult won, was bringing the world to a holy war at the same time he brought Kellhus.

With the Mutilated, Kellhus and Moe Sr and who knows who else leveraging this ability, is the collision/contention with each other the driver behind all that we've seen?
I don't think so. Its merely a difference in assumptions. Kellhus fears that any Dunyain would side with the Consult. That to achieve the Absolute, the Consult had the shortest path. Kellhus, and I suspect Moenghus, took a different path - one that wasn't 100% "The Mission" but included some allowance for the fact that genociding your entire race might be a bit too far.

Or is it all laid to waste simply by divine intervention, the TTT being unable to account for Outside activities?
Like I said, garbage in equals garbage out. Part of Moenghus' failure might have been a misunderstanding of how influential the Gods really were. For that matter, it appears that Kellhus fell for this same trap.

But its not TTT's, or the PT's, failure. That's like blaming the pencil for making mistakes when writing. Those are tools. The fault is the wielder. Just above we have a succinct description of the failings of the Dunyain - they have this problem with dismissing things they don't understand. This makes a tool like the PT very unstable when brought up to the complexity of TTT. For an exchange between two people, or a sword fight, it works great. Anything where all, or most, of the variables are known and accounted for, the PT is very nearly an unstoppable force.

But even in the battle with Mek and Kell in the beginning, a single unknown variable nearly cost him his life. I believe Kellhus himself muses how difficult it is to control an entire room of people given all the variables.

Raise the stakes further to the level of predicting outcomes of entire nations, aliens, and the Gods themselves, and it isn't difficult to see why things don't work out exactly as expected.

Just seems the TTT was too important ( name of even one of the books ) for it to be flushed in this manner is all.
If it makes you feel better, the title was very nearly "When Sorcerers Sing", and in fact the French translation kept that title.
Further, look at the names of the other titles.
TDTCB - still just a pretty nebulus concept
TWP - Important in Book 2, but eventually he dies.
TTT - A failed mechanism by Moe, but continues in some altered for for the rest of the series

TJE - Seeming very powerful, but ultimately doesn't do anything to change the fate of the world. An abject failure really.
TWLW - Not one but two incarnations of TWLW die without accomplishing their mission.
TGO - Ends in total failure.
TUC - The Consult we were expecting all died. Total failure, but will remain in force in some changed manner.

So really, TTT and TUC, both the last book of the series, describe something that seemed to be indomitable, but ends up failing as initially described but maintains importance.

Everything you've read up til now has been error is too much surprise to my thinking.
I hope I've helped you see a different explanation.

Someone's plan is cooking, me thinks. Otherwise it's all a colorful exercise in reading chaos.
Of course. The series continues. :D .
Its just not Moenghus. He dead.

« Last Edit: September 11, 2018, 02:21:41 pm by Wilshire »
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TaoHorror

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« Reply #10 on: September 11, 2018, 02:28:48 pm »
I hope I've helped you see a different explanation.

Excellent, Mr. Shire - indeed you have, well said. True, the story goes on, was just hoping it all amounted to something more than just shit happens.
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Wilshire

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« Reply #11 on: September 11, 2018, 02:32:25 pm »
Lol do you still feel that way?

I mean, it is a bit like that, but there's some much more - at least there is in my own mind.
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« Reply #12 on: September 11, 2018, 03:01:31 pm »
One of the reasons I brought this up is that if we take the Dunyain ability to path the future with any accuracy, then they can't be wrong - you start the path and it happens. Is Moe simply incorrect? It's the "probability trance", so error is baked in and it should still work?

The Dūnyain ability to "see the future" is not perfect by any means.  It is simply a statistical analysis of the present, writ large and extrapolated forward in time.  If one starts with the incorrect suppositions, even small ones, extrapolating outward will probably end up with cascading errors over time.  Greater time, greater variables means more variance.  If the statistical model is also flawed, missing variables compound with built in error and will yield less powerful results.  Moe even admits he considered that "the trail might break" Kellhus, but discounted the chance.

Kellhus going "mad" threw him, he wasn't expecting it and was recalculating the path in real time during their conversation ( or so he was saying, that conversation could've been part of the TTT ). Either prescience ( by intellect, divine or magic ) either works or it doesn't.

Well, again, by his own admission, it's not that it threw him, it's that he considered it simply not probable enough to bother with.  This was an error.  Also, as we discussed, Moe counted as a fundamental tenant that the Outside was passive.  It is demonstrably false.  We can imagine why he might have thought this (the Solitary God is not manifest) but the ultimate conclusion is that this is an error and not a small one.  The issue with prescience in Eärwa is that it isn't real.  As Kellhus plainly tells us, "even the Infinite can be surprised."  That is because time is not linear and it is not fixed.  Anything can change at any time.  So, it works..until it doesn't.  Which is why timey-whimey stuff is confusing as hell and something of a deus ex machina.

Would Moe's TTT have "worked" if no one else was employing the Probability Trance? With the Mutilated, Kellhus and Moe Sr and who knows who else leveraging this ability, is the collision/contention with each other the driver behind all that we've seen? Or is it all laid to waste simply by divine intervention, the TTT being unable to account for Outside activities? Just seems the TTT was too important ( name of even one of the books ) for it to be flushed in this manner is all. Everything you've read up til now has been error is too much surprise to my thinking. Someone's plan is cooking, me thinks. Otherwise it's all a colorful exercise in reading chaos.

Well, Moe's Thought would have worked if it weren't for the Outside.  It's not just divine intervention that throws it all into disarray, but also the atemporal, predestined manner in which the Outside exists.  So, where you think it might be outsmarting it, you are playing directly into it.  Where you imagine you control it, it controls you.  Kellhus' failure is that of imagining suffiency.  He knows he isn't all-powerful, but imagines himself powerful enough to be beyond fundamental tenets of the universe.  And for that, he pays dearly.

The Logos is a trap.  TTT gets flushed because it is not sufficient.  Intellect is not sufficient.  It can accomplish a great deal, but a great deal isn't everything.  And if you want to encompass an infinite field, the margins are as big as the body.  Approximations won't get you there.  This is why loss, in the manner of Koringhus, is salvation.  One cannot achieve completeness through acquisition.  The only completeness is through loss.
“I am a warrior of ages, Anasūrimbor . . . ages. I have dipped my nimil in a thousand hearts. I have ridden both against and for the No-God in the great wars that authored this wilderness. I have scaled the ramparts of great Golgotterath, watched the hearts of High Kings break for fury.” -Cet’ingira

TaoHorror

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« Reply #13 on: September 11, 2018, 03:51:53 pm »
Just like any mathmatical model, garbage in equals garbage out. Worse yet, if your assumptions at the start are wrong, everything you did is garbage.

The Dūnyain ability to "see the future" is not perfect by any means.  It is simply a statistical analysis of the present, writ large and extrapolated forward in time.  If one starts with the incorrect suppositions, even small ones, extrapolating outward will probably end up with cascading errors over time.  Greater time, greater variables means more variance.  If the statistical model is also flawed, missing variables compound with built in error and will yield less powerful results.  Moe even admits he considered that "the trail might break" Kellhus, but discounted the chance.

So here's the thing - Moe and Kellhus HAD to know this as well. Your points are valid - but I think this/these point(s) wouldn't have escaped Moe or Kell. That's an awful lot of chips to put on the table for something that could work if without error - they are as at least as smart as you two, so they had to know the liklihood of a TTT ( as you describe it ) being pulled off is next to nill, and not just because they misunderstood the in-world agency of The Outside. Something is amiss. I find these mistakes too rudimentary for Moe/Kell to make - and I don't say that from my awe of their intellect, but that they sport the intellect to make these same points themselves. If the message is simply we'll never be able to out maneuver the gods, no matter how smart we get, I guess I'll accept that. Just seems there's more mystery beyond what happens next. The war between the sorcerers and TNG will be fun to read - but something's up.

Lol do you still feel that way?

Of course, there is a ton of stuff going on, philosophical treatises abound and I love all of that stuff. Just talking about the arc of the story, the gist of the Duynain, if you will. Like I said, if the "moral" of the story is never think yourself too smart as "higher" agencies have the drop on us no matter what, then ok - just seems too pat from a story perspective. Someone's plan is being executed ... I think.
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SmilerLoki

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« Reply #14 on: September 11, 2018, 04:46:14 pm »
So here's the thing - Moe and Kellhus HAD to know this as well.
I think it's in part a cautionary tale brought forth due to modern society's blind trust in digital analysis, which, contrary to popular belief, has a great many pitfalls and flaws. People just overlook them, thinking that those smarter than them will protect them.

It's not working out.