Are we still on Moenghus Sr TTT?

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« Reply #15 on: September 11, 2018, 05:29:50 pm »
Someone's plan is being executed ... I think.

Well, in this you are right.  The plan is bigger than even The God.  The plan is actually Bakker's.
“I am a warrior of ages, Anasûrimbor . . . ages. I have dipped my nimil in a thousand hearts. I have ridden both against and for the No-God in the great wars that authored this wilderness. I have scaled the ramparts of great Golgotterath, watched the hearts of High Kings break for fury.” -Cet’ingira

Wilshire

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« Reply #16 on: September 11, 2018, 05:55:35 pm »

So here's the thing - Moe and Kellhus HAD to know this as well. Your points are valid - but I think this/these point(s) wouldn't have escaped Moe or Kell.
You're still confusing what probability can do, even totally ignoring Earwa metaphysics.

Its really just simply the impossibility of predicting billions of things to get the outcome you want.

Moe's choices were to fail by doing nothing, or to send for Kellhus. There's no chips on the table, there was literally only two choices and one of those options was certain failure.

Kell was in the same situation.

I think you might also be assuming that the PT always yields the same result. It doesn't. As time and knowledge changes, so to does the possible outcomes. Moenghus didn't even know the outcome of the war when he sent for his son. So yeah, that's a huge gamble. The whole thing was a huge gamble, but that doesn't mean it wasn't the best chance he had.

Compare any % success against an assured 100% loss, even if its only 1%, it was still worth it for Moe.

With finite processing power and finite time, assumptions have to be made. Its hard to come up with examples that are easy to understand, but there's TONS of them in any field you are familiar with.

Like baking.  You 'know' that if you bake the same dough for the same time it will yield the same bread.
I'm assuming you ignore the possibility that your oven will break halfway through. Even though it might. And if it breaks, you get no dessert, but the possibility is so remote its not like you keep 3 spare ovens sitting around just in case. But you also don't sit around and not make dessert because your oven might break. If you don't try, you know for sure that you won't get any delicious baked goods. So you take the risk.

Moe, Kellhus, etc., are doing the same thing. Moving forward with partially solved plans without contingencies for the things that are so remote or so insignificant that they can't or don't plan for them.

The possibility of failure does not make trying a worthless endeavor.

That's an awful lot of chips to put on the table for something that could work if without error - they are as at least as smart as you two, so they had to know the liklihood of a TTT ( as you describe it ) being pulled off is next to nill, and not just because they misunderstood the in-world agency of The Outside. Something is amiss. I find these mistakes too rudimentary for Moe/Kell to make - and I don't say that from my awe of their intellect, but that they sport the intellect to make these same points themselves.
Of course they considered it. That's what the whole hyper-intelligent thing allowed them to do. Account for and control thousands of more variables than a human. That doesn't make them omnipotent though.

If the message is simply we'll never be able to out maneuver the gods, no matter how smart we get, I guess I'll accept that. Just seems there's more mystery beyond what happens next. The war between the sorcerers and TNG will be fun to read - but something's up.
The point to me seems to be that no matter how seamingly powerful something is, nothing is infinite.
Moenghus had 30 years and was killed by his son or if you prefer, killed by his first mistake - Cnaiur.
Kellhus had 30 years and was killed by Ajokli, of if you prefer, Kelmomas.
Koringhus was the smartest, strongest, fastest dunyain ever and commited suicide over the very idea that he might be wrong.
Maithanet was killed by a god despite his prowess.
The Consult, despite  centuries of planning, AI tech, and quite possibly the smartest human at the helm, were outsmarted by a handful of bound slaves.
The New Consult, in turn, despite their combined intellectual might and atomic age technology, were very nearly destroied by Ajokli.
Ajokli, in his turn, despite thousands of years of planning, was brought down by Kelmomas and a chorae.

The entire series is about snatching failure form the jaws of victory.
Or in another light, overcoming seemingly insurmountable odds.
Its a story about hope - that no matter how bad, how overwhelmed, how defeated, the faintest glimmer of the possibility of success is enough.

Of course, there is a ton of stuff going on, philosophical treatises abound and I love all of that stuff. Just talking about the arc of the story, the gist of the Duynain, if you will. Like I said, if the "moral" of the story is never think yourself too smart as "higher" agencies have the drop on us no matter what, then ok - just seems too pat from a story perspective. Someone's plan is being executed ... I think.

If the same story was written from a more traditional point of view, you could cast the Dunyain as the heroes, killing the evil inchoroi, their evil renegade defectors, and killing the gods to bring about eternal Heaven on Earth.

If anything, the moral of the story is that Perspective makes all the difference.

ETA:
It also appears to be about how important missing information is. It's definitely possible someone or something is still running the show, and if they are, I assume we haven't been made fully aware of them
« Last Edit: September 11, 2018, 06:00:05 pm by Wilshire »
One of the other conditions of possibility.

TaoHorror

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« Reply #17 on: September 11, 2018, 06:04:08 pm »
Bested again, Mr. Shire! Well played and explained - I think you're right. I was approaching it too absolutist - maybe a byproduct of me "rooting" for Kellhus ( and I still am  ;) ). So the thinking is TTT has failed, now what do we do ... do I have that right?

EDIT: I wonder if Bakker would eventually allow for a salted Kellhus action figure ...
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Wilshire

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« Reply #18 on: September 11, 2018, 06:23:03 pm »
I'm  not trying to best you lol. I don't understand your POV, or your previous one, so I over compensate by explaining, in too much detail, my own.

I would say I believe Moenghus' TTT, and Moenghus hiimself, failed. Or in the very least, he died and is out of the picture. I can see the argument that if his plan was to save the world from the Consult, some version of his TTT could still be in play through Kellhus.

I'm not so sure Kellhus failed. It sure does look like it. At the very least, I think his original plan failed, but its possible, even likely, that he had some kind of contingency for the Golden Room. If he's around still, we'll be looking at whatever plans B through Z were.

Ajokli, OTOH, seems to have failed pretty resolutely.  Whatever his plans were for the Consult and for Kellhus, they seemed to not have worked out.
One of the other conditions of possibility.

Francis Buck

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« Reply #19 on: October 24, 2018, 07:06:29 am »

So here's the thing - Moe and Kellhus HAD to know this as well. Your points are valid - but I think this/these point(s) wouldn't have escaped Moe or Kell.
You're still confusing what probability can do, even totally ignoring Earwa metaphysics.

Its really just simply the impossibility of predicting billions of things to get the outcome you want.

Moe's choices were to fail by doing nothing, or to send for Kellhus. There's no chips on the table, there was literally only two choices and one of those options was certain failure.

Kell was in the same situation.

I think you might also be assuming that the PT always yields the same result. It doesn't. As time and knowledge changes, so to does the possible outcomes. Moenghus didn't even know the outcome of the war when he sent for his son. So yeah, that's a huge gamble. The whole thing was a huge gamble, but that doesn't mean it wasn't the best chance he had.

Compare any % success against an assured 100% loss, even if its only 1%, it was still worth it for Moe.

With finite processing power and finite time, assumptions have to be made. Its hard to come up with examples that are easy to understand, but there's TONS of them in any field you are familiar with.

Like baking.  You 'know' that if you bake the same dough for the same time it will yield the same bread.
I'm assuming you ignore the possibility that your oven will break halfway through. Even though it might. And if it breaks, you get no dessert, but the possibility is so remote its not like you keep 3 spare ovens sitting around just in case. But you also don't sit around and not make dessert because your oven might break. If you don't try, you know for sure that you won't get any delicious baked goods. So you take the risk.

Moe, Kellhus, etc., are doing the same thing. Moving forward with partially solved plans without contingencies for the things that are so remote or so insignificant that they can't or don't plan for them.

The possibility of failure does not make trying a worthless endeavor.

That's an awful lot of chips to put on the table for something that could work if without error - they are as at least as smart as you two, so they had to know the liklihood of a TTT ( as you describe it ) being pulled off is next to nill, and not just because they misunderstood the in-world agency of The Outside. Something is amiss. I find these mistakes too rudimentary for Moe/Kell to make - and I don't say that from my awe of their intellect, but that they sport the intellect to make these same points themselves.
Of course they considered it. That's what the whole hyper-intelligent thing allowed them to do. Account for and control thousands of more variables than a human. That doesn't make them omnipotent though.

If the message is simply we'll never be able to out maneuver the gods, no matter how smart we get, I guess I'll accept that. Just seems there's more mystery beyond what happens next. The war between the sorcerers and TNG will be fun to read - but something's up.
The point to me seems to be that no matter how seamingly powerful something is, nothing is infinite.
Moenghus had 30 years and was killed by his son or if you prefer, killed by his first mistake - Cnaiur.
Kellhus had 30 years and was killed by Ajokli, of if you prefer, Kelmomas.
Koringhus was the smartest, strongest, fastest dunyain ever and commited suicide over the very idea that he might be wrong.
Maithanet was killed by a god despite his prowess.
The Consult, despite  centuries of planning, AI tech, and quite possibly the smartest human at the helm, were outsmarted by a handful of bound slaves.
The New Consult, in turn, despite their combined intellectual might and atomic age technology, were very nearly destroied by Ajokli.
Ajokli, in his turn, despite thousands of years of planning, was brought down by Kelmomas and a chorae.

The entire series is about snatching failure form the jaws of victory.
Or in another light, overcoming seemingly insurmountable odds.
Its a story about hope - that no matter how bad, how overwhelmed, how defeated, the faintest glimmer of the possibility of success is enough.

Of course, there is a ton of stuff going on, philosophical treatises abound and I love all of that stuff. Just talking about the arc of the story, the gist of the Duynain, if you will. Like I said, if the "moral" of the story is never think yourself too smart as "higher" agencies have the drop on us no matter what, then ok - just seems too pat from a story perspective. Someone's plan is being executed ... I think.

If the same story was written from a more traditional point of view, you could cast the Dunyain as the heroes, killing the evil inchoroi, their evil renegade defectors, and killing the gods to bring about eternal Heaven on Earth.

If anything, the moral of the story is that Perspective makes all the difference.

ETA:
It also appears to be about how important missing information is. It's definitely possible someone or something is still running the show, and if they are, I assume we haven't been made fully aware of them

This is an awesome post and I almost entirely agree with it (although I do still think the possibility of posthumous planning by Moenghus could still occur, even if I'm not totally expecting it).

The only major thing I'd say is that I very much think that somewhere in the hierarchy of deities, one of them is the Prime Mover -- however, as you say, we simply don't know enough to be certain yet. I feel like the World is a strong candidate even though I'm not sure it's even a true "deity" per se, if at all (sometimes it seems like it's just the constituent of material Creation, but then there's plenty of sly off-hand suggestions that the World is indeed an active force of some kind).

The simple fact for me is that the nature of the series is such that I'd actually be disappointed if there wasn't an agency who whose dominion was nothing less than immutable, divine Law. It just feels like a very natural development for the narrative, especially closer towards the end we get. 
« Last Edit: October 24, 2018, 07:11:04 am by Francis Buck »

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« Reply #20 on: October 25, 2018, 02:48:56 pm »
The only major thing I'd say is that I very much think that somewhere in the hierarchy of deities, one of them is the Prime Mover -- however, as you say, we simply don't know enough to be certain yet. I feel like the World is a strong candidate even though I'm not sure it's even a true "deity" per se, if at all (sometimes it seems like it's just the constituent of material Creation, but then there's plenty of sly off-hand suggestions that the World is indeed an active force of some kind).

Well, as we discussed in the Soul thread, I do agree there is a hierarchy, but it doesn't have an infite God at the top, but rather at the bottom.  That is to say then, that it is rather plausible that the "world  conspires" is exactly right, because the "World" that is, the universe, that is, everything is God.

The simple fact for me is that the nature of the series is such that I'd actually be disappointed if there wasn't an agency who whose dominion was nothing less than immutable, divine Law. It just feels like a very natural development for the narrative, especially closer towards the end we get. 

Well, that agent is actually already know, it is the Cubit that Mimara views things from.
“I am a warrior of ages, Anasûrimbor . . . ages. I have dipped my nimil in a thousand hearts. I have ridden both against and for the No-God in the great wars that authored this wilderness. I have scaled the ramparts of great Golgotterath, watched the hearts of High Kings break for fury.” -Cet’ingira

Wilshire

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« Reply #21 on: October 25, 2018, 03:31:44 pm »
that is, everything is God.
Heinlein said it best - "Thou art God." :)
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« Reply #22 on: October 25, 2018, 03:37:47 pm »
that is, everything is God.
Heinlein said it best - "Thou art God." :)

Sure, but contrasted with the real-world Christian interpretation of God as top-down, Eärwan God is bottom-up, so to speak.
“I am a warrior of ages, Anasûrimbor . . . ages. I have dipped my nimil in a thousand hearts. I have ridden both against and for the No-God in the great wars that authored this wilderness. I have scaled the ramparts of great Golgotterath, watched the hearts of High Kings break for fury.” -Cet’ingira

TLEILAXU

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« Reply #23 on: October 25, 2018, 03:53:54 pm »
that is, everything is God.
Heinlein said it best - "Thou art God." :)

Sure, but contrasted with the real-world Christian interpretation of God as top-down, Eärwan God is bottom-up, so to speak.
What's the difference?

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« Reply #24 on: October 25, 2018, 05:41:43 pm »
Hmmm, I'm not entirely sure I would equate the World with the God-of-Gods just yet, nor that the God-of-Gods is necessarily at the top/bottom of the hierarchy, given that it's neither omniscient nor omnipotent, as it is blind even to its own Creation. It seems to most resemble a fusion of Demiurgic qualities with that of Hegelian and/or Theosophical "Nature".

I'm uncertain whether or not it qualifies as the Absolute -- I'm inclined to believe that if anything is the Absolute, it is the No-God, but I'm not convinced of that either!

And what of the Meta-God? Was that just a throwaway line meant to be an alternative title to the God-of-Gods, or...something else? I wonder if there might not also be the Hegelian/Theosophical equivalent of Spirit, or "fohat". 

 

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« Reply #25 on: October 25, 2018, 05:54:16 pm »
What's the difference?

Christian God is transcendent, so necessarily the pinnacle of the hierarchy, even if only the hierarchy of Divinity.  Eärwan God-of-gods though is shattered, distributed.  This means that the hierarchy of Divine beings begins likely are assemblages of those smaller shards.  In other words, Eärwan God is that which the hierarchy rises out of, where Christian God is more like the thing at the pinnacle of the hierarchy.
“I am a warrior of ages, Anasûrimbor . . . ages. I have dipped my nimil in a thousand hearts. I have ridden both against and for the No-God in the great wars that authored this wilderness. I have scaled the ramparts of great Golgotterath, watched the hearts of High Kings break for fury.” -Cet’ingira

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« Reply #26 on: November 08, 2018, 09:32:17 pm »
I'm still riding the Daddy Moe is going to save us all, his plan is still playing out behind the scenes.

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« Reply #27 on: November 08, 2018, 09:44:07 pm »
I'm still riding the Daddy Moe is going to save us all, his plan is still playing out behind the scenes.

Yeah, his plan is that everyone dies.  He boldly lead the way just to show us how it was done.
“I am a warrior of ages, Anasûrimbor . . . ages. I have dipped my nimil in a thousand hearts. I have ridden both against and for the No-God in the great wars that authored this wilderness. I have scaled the ramparts of great Golgotterath, watched the hearts of High Kings break for fury.” -Cet’ingira