I think there might be more than meets the eye in this passage, but I actually disagree with the section you put in bold being significant. That specific sentence looks to me like a man in desperation, finding similarities between a woman and child that might have looked like someone he knew in the past. Or perhaps finding a kindred spirit in the common flight of a common enemy.
Other sections, like the original passage where the arrow misses, sees like it could be fate. How hard would it be to hit a stationary man on a horse? That said, later, when more arrows miss, I think that could just be difficulties hitting a moving target from horseback and much less likely to be some kind of intervention.
I didn't think that the 'whore of fate' was actually a goddess, more of an idea to describe chance, but turns out I forgot about the Goddess Anagke (The Goddess of fortune, also known as "the Whore of Fate").
In terms of difficulty, Cnaiur is drawing arrows and firing back and hitting a target every time. I think the passage I bolded is important, because besides the symbolic significance of a woman having just given birth, that bolded passage is what indicates some supernatural connection, any warrior who has lived as long as Cnaiur has been one of Fate's "lovers" for many years. In this world there is no chance or happenstance or lucky breaks, Cnaiur has been surviving for a long time for a reason. And his recognition in that moment seems to indicate the woman is more than what she seems.
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As for the assertion it was Gilgaol, that doesn't make sense because Cnaiur enters this scene on the basis of FLEEING from battle and war, I think in those circumstances, Gilgaol wouldn't be riding him as he probably does in other circumstances. However WHY did Cnaiur flee? He fled to save Serwe. Again, not a circumstance that Gilgaol would favor (saving a woman, a whore, why should a warrior care about such things?). However it does seem like a circumstance that FATE might favor, Cnaiur risking himself and his reputation and SACRIFICING the battle for a whore (like fate).
And also note after this sequence, when Kellhus meets Cnaiur he discovers that Cnaiur's face has been wiped completely blank and that he can no longer read him. this plays into why he keeps Cnaiur around, though Kellhus does a blindingly obvious post-hoc rationalization that it is pity he feels (look at the text, Kellhus doesn't have a thought that could be construed as pity, he recognizes a blank face and then does a rationalization that he feels pity and stops thinking about the disturbing fact of the blank-faceness (heuristic compression?)). The only other instance we can really 'assume' that Kellhus encounters a face he cannot read is Sorweel who was blessed by a god...
And if you really want to get into conspiracy theories, Cnaiur is blessed by Fate so he can save Serwe. Fate causes Cnaiur to draw the battle to the encampment of the Scarlet Spires, which turns the defeat at Anwurat into a nominal victory. Fate doing this allows Cnaiur to save Serwe. By Saving Serwe, Fate preserves Serwe for the upcoming Circumfix. By blessing Cnaiur, Fate causes Kellhus to preserve the only character who can do battle with a Skinspy and defeat them in open combat (at the Circumfix). Fate, by getting Cnaiur to abandon/sacrifice the battle, assures a later victory at the Circumfix. Because Kellhus intended to kill Cnaiur but was MOVED by something he did not grok (just like when he WITNESSED the rape of Serwe). Kellhus being typical blind Kellhus attributes this Movement to world-born emotions (like pity), when the reader should be thinking it is possible that Kellhus is being manipulated by the Gods in these instances, yet his arrogance blinds him to their presence and maneuvering.
