So I'm not sure what to think. If Moe really didn't plan it, it seemed like it still very much worked out in his favor.
A fortuitous correspondence of cause if ever there was one. But then, certain instances worked out in Kel's favor, too (the whole 'punish the Shrial Knights' thing, for instance). Almost like the world conspired to make things happen. But I digress. There are a few things that make me think it was still Moe behind the assassination.
1) I might literally be reading too much into this, but it seems there might be a clue in the following text. The scene is Kel and Moe walking from the waterfall room to the interrogation room. They walk in darkness and Kel is telling Moe what he thinks happened in Moe's time in the world:
"So the Cishaurim assassinated the Grandmaster of the Scarlet Spires, prompting a war that will find its conclusion this very day..."
Just then, Kellhus inadvertently kicked something lying upon the graven floor. Something hollow and fibrous. A skull?"I wondered about this passage for a long time. It seemed strange to add that Kel accidentally kicked something in the dark while speaking to Moe, right at that moment. He could have kicked something in the dark at any time. Why then? Was this a literary red flag, like he took a misstep in his assumptions? I don't know, but it still nags me.
2) A quote from Moe, after the two arrive in the interrogation room:
"I have some facility for those elements of the Psukhe that require more subtlety than power. Scrying, Calling, Translating..."Calling catches my attention. Remember that Kel inferred the meta-gnostic cant of Transposing from a simple cant of Calling. I believe Moe instructed his adherents in meta-Psukhe Transposing. It might look different than meta-gnostic Transposing, but the effect would be the same.
3) Everyone underestimated the Cishaurim. In the battle over Shimeh, Cishaurim Primaries were able to defeat SS sorcerers of rank one-on-one. They had ample raw power and probably would have defeated the SS had not Kel popped in and turned the tide. Likewise, I believe Moenghus has been underestimated greatly. Maybe I'm being stubborn here, but 30 years in the world of men is still longer than Kel has been there, even by the end of TWLW (around 22 years?). I think that everyone is still walking Moe's conditioned ground. His plans have not run dry, imho. I'm digressing again!
Just remembered something else, as well. Maithanet. He was one of the Few, but Moe never had him trained as such (unless he somehow got around the whole blindness thing and Maitha was Cishaurim!! hell, that would have been awesome). Anyway, Moe obviously had plans for Maitha that didn't include him becoming a sorcerer (i.e., he had always planned for him to take over the Thousand Temples). Just guessing here, but based on Moe's time in the world and the relatively young age of Maitha, I would hazard that Maitha was a teenager when the Grandmaster of the SS was killed. And rambling...