From the quotes Bolivar gave, it sounds like the Pragma definitely sent Kellhus to kill Moe. You do make a point though, we can't be entirely certain Kellhus intended to carry out his mission.
This is where the skeptic in me comes out: I can't believe that anything other than what we saw in the narrative in regards to the Pragmas killing themselves. If they only pretended to do so to deceive Kellhus, then I think we should have seen something to that effect by the end of the TTT. So I am in the camp that they legitimately send Kellhus to kill Moe, and then committed suicide because they had been polluted by the dreams.
Well, there is plenty to be skeptical of with Kellhus' mission as presented.
First, we are only told of the Pragmas going down to TTH to die by Kellhus, who watches from outside Ishual. He only assumes that the "plan" was carried out that they would die. We really have no idea if they do or not.
Second, the Pragma must know that Moe is very powerful at this point. So much so that he is a threat to all the Dûnyain, yet they send only
one person to "stop" (kill, what have you) him. That does not seem so logical, especially considering that Kellhus almost doesn't make it several times, including freezing to death in the snow. That is the best plan contrived by all the senior Pragma, when Moe is able to,
by himself, comprise a Thousandfold Thought that can dominate the entire Three Seas? Granted, it was over more time, but still, that are certainly more than one Pragma.
Third, why would the Pragma do
exactly what Moe asks? We are told that he sent dreams saying "send me my son." Why, if they wanted to stop him, would they do exactly what he asked? Unless there was some other reason why they were compelled to comply...
Fourth, why is Kellhus constantly
telling people about the Dûnyain? The whole point of a secret society is that it's supposed to be a
secret.
Fifth, why was Moe sent away in the first place? Frankly I do not buy the idea that Sranc contaminated him to the point that he couldn't come back to Ishual. And even considering that they might have, why not just kill him? Obviously, if we are to believe that the Pramga killed themselves (or allowed themselves to be killed) for being polluted, why wasn't the same done with Moe?
That's all I could think of at the moment. To me though, it doesn't add up to the "story" we're told being the whole story.