What is Earwa's Arrow of Time and how does it point? I think defining this is crucial to this discussion.
I don't know...even if it's circular or subject to some backward causality those living within the flow of time don't seem to have a way to tell false and true prophecies apart.
I suppose one technique to differentiate is to examine the qualities of the varied Prophet's souls - but it seems to me the Inchie Bros are just fanatics who've bet too much on things turning out the way they hope/need them to.