Earwa > The Thousandfold Thought

Saubon v. Conphas (And Other Considerations)

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Madness:
Continued from Quorum...

I'll have thoughts but I'll let this boil ;).

Walter:
Alright, let's talk about the battle of Shimeh.

My thoughts, labeled so that they are easy to talk about.

Original Timeline (timeline in the book)

1: HW and Fanim are battling, with Fanim having the upper hand due to their tactics
2: Nansur are approaching rear of HW, Saik in tow, to destroy it
3: Akka, due to Iyokus treachery, ends up near Nansur HQ, kills several Saik and scatters their formation
4: Saubon attacks Nansur from behind, kills Conphas and takes over Nansur army
5: Nansur + Galeoth forces + Saik reinforce the Holy War and defeat Fanim

Our discussion basically boiled down to how much of this outcome is dependent on luck (Akka's arrival), vs how much is dependent on Kellhus manipulations (Saubon is presumably part of Kellhus plan)

I postulate an alternate timeline (A), wherein Akka does not show up to the battle

A1: HW and Fanim are battling, with Fanim having the upper hand due to their tactics
A2: Nansur are approaching rear of HW, Saik in tow, to destroy it
A3: Nansur attack HW in the back with Saik support
A4: Galeoth attack Nansur in the back, no School support
A5: Battle now has 4 armies (Fanim, HW, Nansur, Galeoth), with 1 School (Saik) on the Fanim/Nansur side.  My general thinking is that this is ultimately results in victory for the Nansur/Fanim

Discussion also covers another alternate timeline (B), wherein Saubon caught up to the Nansur before they attack the HW

(Basic question of A vs B is how long the Nansur are stalled when Akka slaughters their HQ and kills 4 Saik + the Saik GM)

B1:  HW and Fanim are battling, with Fanim having the upper hand due to their tactics
B2: Nansur are approaching rear of HW, Saik in tow, to destroy it
B3: Galeoth attack Nansur in the back, no School support

At this point we have 2 seperate battles, Fanim/HW and Nansur/Galeoth
Very hard to guess how this goes, my best guess is:
HW lasts long enough for Kellhus to get back and turn the tide of Fanim/HW
Nansur slaughter the Galeoth in short order, due to having the Saik

Very hard to say what happens next in B timeline.


The upshot of all this is that Akka (or rather, luck) saved Kellhus bacon, keeping him out of A timeline and on track to become Aspect Emperor.

themerchant:
Quick  question why is Iyokus treachery getting a shout? He is there cause Cnaiur told him about Kellhus and Conphas (which he forgets to say) cause he runs to esme to tell her, then they go off to some ruins and do what they do.

Iyokus demon finds him after he kills 5 Imperial Saik, and he takes that out too.

Walter:
I hadn't read it in a while, thought that Iyokus's daemon hit Akka before, and that's what drove him over to the Nansur.  My bad.

themerchant:
Saubon is reaching the Imperial army.

There is not much time between Akka appearing and Saubon appearing. So they would have engaged before anyone reached shimeh and the HW.

I think the imperial Saik would totally feck up Saubon and his troops in the battle.

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