I think also what gets people to think Ajokli is Cnaüir is Bakkers comment that what comes after determines what comes before. Now, we know that this is true in Earwa, but is it true of all instances?
Lets see. We have Seswatha and the 1st Apocalypse preceding the Mandate. Nonmen proceeding Men and many other instances in sure I could come up with. My point though,is that what comes before does, in fact, determine what comes after in many cases in the books, in world. So, I think, that both are true. Just that what comes after is in fact true also and allows Bakker to bend the rules. Which is fine, we've speculated that this was so many times.
Let's take Kellhus for example, if what comes after is only true, then he was always possessed by Ajokli...and I don't think the text holds that up. I think somewhere along the lines of him working the Diamos is when it started, I don't agree that it was on the Circumfix.
If you look at Bakkers answers on the AMA and Q&A he is a variable Ajokli himself. When asked who Kellhus sees in his vision was Ajokli, his answer was, "Thats a good proposition."(paraphrasing). He will lead you down a path of your own liking, just like Cnaüir.