this is cool! -- are you saying that the Dunyain tried to fulfill the prophecy with Moenghus but got it wrong? kind of like what happens in Dune with the Kwizathaderach (sp?)
I'm thinking that the Dunyain did not fail with Moenghus, but that Moenghus was necessary to set the stage for Kellhus to even be possible (think of Maithanet, of Moenghus' creation of the very Holy War which saw Kellhus made Aspect-Emperor). The same is probably the case for their lie about the existence of sorcery. It makes sense that they would lie to one another in order to condition Kellhus. I'm suggesting that the Dunyain were and potentially always have been attempting to fulfill the Celmomian Prophecy and thereby create a (singular) soul (Kellhus) capable of transcending the circle of causation (meaning that he would be one who is determined by what is to come as opposed to what came before), and thereby save mankind.
This is good, except that this implies that the Dunyain knew of the prophesy from the start, or at least very early on, and I thought that Celmomas didn't die until after the Dunyain too up refuge in Ishual.
They most probably did know of the Prophecy. In fact, it's my belief that not only did they know of it, but it was indeed why they were sent there in the first place. First, the timeline matches up, Celmomas died in 2146, the Dunyain arrive at Isual in 2147. Indeed, in the prologue, we are presented from the start with the fact that it was the High King who had fled there, that High King being Ganrelka II, who would only be so if Celmomas was indeed dead.
Ishual was more than a refuge though, it was a refuge for the Anisurimbor lineage. "Seeds" is what Celmomas tells Seswatha and a "place where my line can outlive me." Only two people could have sent the Dunyain to Ishual, Celmomas or Seswatha. I think Seswatha is a more likely candidate, but this doesn't discount Celmomas being complicit somehow.
I found love to ask Scott about Asimov's Foundation Series, because I have a feeling that Seswatha is Bakker's Hari Selden...