Parallels between the Anasurimbor and the Ikurei, and the Great Ordeal and the Holy War
Conphas had "known - known with a certainty that had made his bones feel like iron. I own this place. I am more... The feeling had been akin to rapture or religious ecstasy. It had been, he later realized, a moment of divine insight into the immeasurable might of his hand".
With hindsight, this might well be a Kellhus POV.
The HOly War will fail at Shimeh (but actually doesn't) - the Ordeal will fail at Golgotterath (but seemingly not by design, as far as we know).
With hindsight, this could be a kind of surrogate Kellhus POV. Telling what happens when Kellhus 'goes mad', but also pointing out that this is delusional. There are a lot of correspondences between Conphas' and Kellhus' arcs across the both series IMHO.
There are many similarities between the two from the first time we read the series, and even more on a reread, especially post-TUC as you said. Conphas was not infallible. He was very popular and was able to inspire intense loyalty from his men, but ultimately failed at his goal of turning the Holy War into his own instrument and becoming the next Triamis the Great. This really should have served as a warning sign after we saw Kellhus ultimately become even more powerful than Triamis, also inspiring intense loyalty and setting his sights on defeating the Consult...only to discover he was not infallible either. Such great parallels.
Xerius and Conphas = Moenghus and Kellhus? There are obvious similarities between Conphas and Kellhus - the two can be contrasted throughout PON - Conphas does come across almost as a worldborn Dunyain, but of course is no match for the real deal. In TAE, Kellhus is perhaps what Conphas thinks he is/ should be, but he ends up failing just like Conphas does.
I'm not sure if Xerius = Moenghus stacks up, but both are web weavers, who act from behind the scenes rather than get directly involved in the fighting.
Conphas' POV would definitely not feel out of character coming from a more stable half-Dûnyain in the mold of Maithanet, Kayûtas or Serwa.
I already commented on the Conphas/Kellhus parallel above. Xerius/Moënghus...hmm, I can see
some similarities there, but not striking parallels, really (of course, the fact that we don't have Moënghus' POV doesn't help). Yes, both prefer to manipulate rather than directly act, but I don't see much more in common (just my opinion, though, maybe you or someone else can add something more that I overlooked).
The idea that the Fanim would be happy to agree to let the Holy War get all the way to Shimeh doesn't really make sense. And if they were, why spend all that time and effort fighting it before it gets there? There's shades of the Ordeal going to Golgotterath here as well.
Is it smart? On the assumption that the Holy War suffers a terrible defeat at Shimeh, there are two likely outcomes. Either the Nansur have been holding back, and then attack and defeat the Fanim, taking Shimeh - to me it is inconceivable that Conphas would not do this. Or, the Fanim destroy the Nansur armies as well, and steamroll all the way to Sumna. In any case, why would the Fanim give up Shigek and Caraskand to their arch enemies, the infidel Nansur?
Which the Fanim will just let happen? No way
This does make sense, but then the Holy War will not perish at Shimeh as stated in the Chapter
"I am only a young girl and know little of the ways of war" (by which I mean, military strategy is really not my thing - I'm sorry, I just
couldn't resist quoting Daenerys Targaryen here), but I recall that quote by Xerius about the Fanim and the Nansur being old, honourable enemies, who understand each other. I think they were counting on that, act as allies initially (the Padirajah "asking for a gesture", etc.) and
then take advantage of the damage inflicted on the Fanim armies by the Holy War. (The Holy War perishing at Shimeh anyway.) I could see this being at least Conphas' plan from the start, if not Xerius'. Of course, things might have gone very badly for Conphas regardless, but it doesn't seem that farfetched that he could do this.
There's a Dunyain in the room when the deal is done. It could be inferred that the whole scheme has actually been instigated by Moenghus, so that Kellhus has a better chance of getting to Shimeh.
It certainly shouldn't be ruled out, should it? 
Also, Moenghus must surely know that Skeaos is a skin-spy, and therefore that the Consult are involved with Nansur decision making at the highest levels.
In retrospect, it does seem like this was indeed the case...
Also the entire Holy War is a Dunyain plot. No Dunyain - the whole thing doesn't happen.
Not really, the Holy War itself is a Dunyain scheme. Moenghus and Maithanet are playing the Nansur.
The Holy War
was orchestrated by Moënghus with Maithanet as his main piece in the game, but imagine, say, that Kellhus dies before ever getting to the Holy War. Things were already put in motion, the Holy War still marches. Conphas and Xerius have no serious opponent among the Lords of the Holy War. You could make the argument that they die during the crossing of the Carathay, which is a fair argument, but the thing is, we can't know for sure what would have happened. It's also very possible that losing Kellhus drives Moënghus to orchestrate the complete annihilation of the Holy War, as he doesn't need it anymore. I still don't think it's
impossible for Conphas' plan to succeed in this situation, but then again, "what-ifs" are subjective.
He just doesn't want to admit to himself that he needs the good opinions of other people. The insecurity of arrogance, if you like.
Makes sense. This was also one of his mistakes.
You'd think he would have realised why he had been sent north in the first place. Whilst Conphas is a brilliant individual, he does seem very self-absorbed and not necessarily good at picking up what's going on around him.
Conphas' sense of self-importance really is his greatest weakness. No matter how intelligent he might be, he will make mistakes. Just because he does not care for the people around him, it definitely doesn't mean he shouldn't try to understand their motivations. One of the reasons Kellhus ultimately succeeded against him later on. Dûnyain-like Conphas might be, but he's still no Dûnyain...
This has got me wondering if Conphas could potentially be an Insertant. He is of course no God, despite his opinions to the contrary.
This is an interesting theory, I had never thought about that possibility. I'd say it's plausible, in the very least. Just because no one was successfully Inserted in between Nau-Cayûti and Kelmomas, it doesn't mean that there weren't potential Insertants around that the Consult never got to (after all, 1977 years passed between the end of the First Apocalypse and the beginning of the Second, that's a fairly long time).
Manipulation via perversion of sexual desire does seem a very Consult thing to do. I'm not saying Istriya has or hasn't been a skin-spy for any long duration - just pointing it out.
It would be right in character for a skin-spy, but if there was an actual sexual relationship there not-Istriya would have been found out, as we saw in TTT with Xerius. Though sexual manipulation
without actual sex between the two (Istriya choosing sexual partners for Conphas as she did for Xerius?) is not out of the question.
Good call 
Thanks! It's surprising, what you can suddenly notice on a reread...I'd never even thought about Moënghus and Istriya's similarities before rereading this chapter.
The No-God.
Indeed! This bit of foreshadowing does seem to get lost among everything else that goes on. If I remember correctly, the No-God proper (and not in the form of the Dead-God/Lokung) is only mentioned in more detail quite a bit later in the series.
Show Posts
