So here's the thing - Moe and Kellhus HAD to know this as well. Your points are valid - but I think this/these point(s) wouldn't have escaped Moe or Kell.
You're still confusing what probability can do, even totally ignoring Earwa metaphysics.
Its really just simply the impossibility of predicting billions of things to get the outcome you want.
Moe's choices were to fail by doing nothing, or to send for Kellhus. There's no chips on the table, there was literally only two choices and one of those options was certain failure.
Kell was in the same situation.
I think you might also be assuming that the PT always yields the same result. It doesn't. As time and knowledge changes, so to does the possible outcomes. Moenghus didn't even know the outcome of the war when he sent for his son. So yeah, that's a huge gamble. The whole thing was a huge gamble, but that doesn't mean it wasn't the best chance he had.
Compare any % success against an assured 100% loss, even if its only 1%, it was still worth it for Moe.
With finite processing power and finite time, assumptions have to be made. Its hard to come up with examples that are easy to understand, but there's TONS of them in any field you are familiar with.
Like baking. You 'know' that if you bake the same dough for the same time it will yield the same bread.
I'm assuming you ignore the possibility that your oven will break halfway through. Even though it might. And if it breaks, you get no dessert, but the possibility is so remote its not like you keep 3 spare ovens sitting around just in case. But you also don't sit around and
not make dessert because your oven might break. If you don't try, you know for sure that you won't get any delicious baked goods. So you take the risk.
Moe, Kellhus, etc., are doing the same thing. Moving forward with partially solved plans without contingencies for the things that are so remote or so insignificant that they can't or don't plan for them.
The possibility of failure does not make trying a worthless endeavor.
That's an awful lot of chips to put on the table for something that could work if without error - they are as at least as smart as you two, so they had to know the liklihood of a TTT ( as you describe it ) being pulled off is next to nill, and not just because they misunderstood the in-world agency of The Outside. Something is amiss. I find these mistakes too rudimentary for Moe/Kell to make - and I don't say that from my awe of their intellect, but that they sport the intellect to make these same points themselves.
Of course they considered it. That's what the whole hyper-intelligent thing allowed them to do. Account for and control thousands of more variables than a human. That doesn't make them omnipotent though.
If the message is simply we'll never be able to out maneuver the gods, no matter how smart we get, I guess I'll accept that. Just seems there's more mystery beyond what happens next. The war between the sorcerers and TNG will be fun to read - but something's up.
The point to me seems to be that no matter how seamingly powerful something is, nothing is infinite.
Moenghus had 30 years and was killed by his son or if you prefer, killed by his first mistake - Cnaiur.
Kellhus had 30 years and was killed by Ajokli, of if you prefer, Kelmomas.
Koringhus was the smartest, strongest, fastest dunyain ever and commited suicide over the very idea that he might be wrong.
Maithanet was killed by a god despite his prowess.
The Consult, despite centuries of planning, AI tech, and quite possibly the smartest human at the helm, were outsmarted by a handful of bound slaves.
The New Consult, in turn, despite their combined intellectual might and atomic age technology, were very nearly destroied by Ajokli.
Ajokli, in his turn, despite thousands of years of planning, was brought down by Kelmomas and a chorae.
The entire series is about snatching failure form the jaws of victory.
Or in another light, overcoming seemingly insurmountable odds.
Its a story about hope - that no matter how bad, how overwhelmed, how defeated, the faintest glimmer of the possibility of success is enough.
Of course, there is a ton of stuff going on, philosophical treatises abound and I love all of that stuff. Just talking about the arc of the story, the gist of the Duynain, if you will. Like I said, if the "moral" of the story is never think yourself too smart as "higher" agencies have the drop on us no matter what, then ok - just seems too pat from a story perspective. Someone's plan is being executed ... I think.
If the same story was written from a more traditional point of view, you could cast the Dunyain as the heroes, killing the evil inchoroi, their evil renegade defectors, and killing the gods to bring about eternal Heaven on Earth.
If anything, the moral of the story is that Perspective makes all the difference.
ETA:
It also appears to be about how important missing information is. It's definitely possible someone or something is still running the show, and if they are, I assume we haven't been made fully aware of them
