[Bolivar]

Shae. He's the OG of scheming in Earwa.

Moenghus though obviously I re read the scene where Iyokus takes Eleazarus for a post-mortem on the plains of Mengedda. I really feel like he knew every decision Kellhus would make, down to a frighteningly specific level.

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[H]

I think Seswatha is the true "man in the shadows."  The more I think about things, as they are in the moment, the more everything seems to point back to Seswatha.

Consider the following:

1.) Seswatha is the one who "heard" the Celmomian Prophecy, no one else.

Easily could read "made up". The nature of Prophecy in Earwa is something a point of contention, since Aurang mentions something about 'false' prophecies. Maybe Seswatha knew exactly what he was doing when he told the story of that Prophecy, making forcing it into reality.

Well, I am not good at saying things eloquently, haha.  It did always bother me, the whole thing about prophecy not working, so to speak, because it seemed like they were all saying it couldn't be true, while simultaneously bending over backwards to make sure it was.

2.) Seswatha and Celmomas were the only ones who knew of Ishual (and Ganrelka II too, but more on that later).
3.) Celmomas' plan seemed to be to have Ganrelka II inhabit Ishual to continue the line.  He couldn't have anticipated the 'plague' that killed them.  Therefor the most likely culprit on who sent the Dunyain there is Seswatha.

The biggest gap here is that we don't know that Seswatha was engaged with the creation/shaping of the Dunyain. That said, seems terribly convenient the way its all played out for that not to be the case.

It's a circumstantial case at best, but I'll stick by it, until proved otherwise, haha

4.) The Dunyain stated intention is the fulfillment of the Celmomian Prophecy (see point 1).

I didn't follow that. How do you know?

For me, actions speak a lot louder than words.  By sending out Moe, they set the Phrophecy into motion.  Perhaps they knew, perhaps not, but someone did and someone made it happen.  To me, there are no such things as coincidence.  No way they have their greatest student right at the moment where a rando band of Sranc force his being sent in to the world.  To me, it's totally clear that the Dunyain were fulfilling their objective in that moment.

5.) Perhaps most importantly, almost everything we know of the Apocalypse comes from (or through) Seswatha.  The dreams, presented as 'fact' by Akka, mainly because they are seem real to him (and so, it would seem to us), not to mention the Isûphiryas, the Nonman history before the coming of Man, "saved by Seswatha, who delivered it to the scribes of the Three Seas."  Is it no wonder that The Sagas, the human history of the Apocalyse, seem to paint a different picture from the Mandate's canon on events?  Also no wonder that we never really get to read them?

I agree completely. My response to the OP seems to match up with this pretty well and I hadn't read this yet .

What's that about great minds,

To me, it seems clear that the Second Apocalypse is a clear set up by Seswatha.  Kellhus is made to break the game, end the cycle.  Everything else, Seswatha has manipulated to help him achieve this.  Prevention was never an aim.  The Mandate, the Dunyain are made to bring about the Apocalypse, not prevent it.  The First Apocalypse was on the Consult's terms.  The Second is on Seswatha's.

Or something like that...

Love the bold.

Thanks, 

Thats a good perspective I have not really considered. Seems pretty good, though remember that Kellhus does not actually see the Pragma die. He sees them filing down the stairs, allegedly to the Thousand Thousand halls. Even if they went there, I somehow doubt they sat around and died if they were in the know. Given the state of Ishual, its more likely to me that they set about bringing Ishual to ruin and leaving in secret to do whatever else it is they had to do.... Or just leaving Ishual, knowing that Kellhus and the rest of the herd thought them to be dead.

Very true.  At least we know they recused themselves.  If Kell didn't have to die, why should they?  But I think they knew they had to get away from Kellhus.

[MSJ]

Shae. He's the OG of scheming in Earwa.

Moenghus though obviously I re read the scene where Iyokus takes Eleazarus for a post-mortem on the plains of Mengedda. I really feel like he knew every decision Kellhus would make, down to a frighteningly specific level.

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Well, I can't say your wrong. He's just manipulating for the wrong side, yo!  Unless you subscribe that the Dûnyain are aligned with the Consult. I've lost that delusion. EAMD

[MSJ]

Also, since I'm about halfway through TDTCB, my 3rd reread. I've seen a couple things early that point to Seswatha being a bigger part of this story. First, I believe right of the bat Seswatha is starting to manipulate Akka's dreams. He notes in one of his first dreams we see that when he looks in the mirror he see's himself and not Seswatha, notes how odd that is. Secondly, when he's meeting with Inrau and Sarcellus knocks him to the ground he whispers in Akka's ear, "Oh, how I've longed to do that!". Right there is a skin spy speaking to Seswatha and you would never pick that up unless on a reread. And, it enforces the idea, to me, that Seswatha is part of this thing hands on. It actually shocked me when I read it, like a subtle clue left so early on.

[H]

Shae. He's the OG of scheming in Earwa.

Moenghus though obviously I re read the scene where Iyokus takes Eleazarus for a post-mortem on the plains of Mengedda. I really feel like he knew every decision Kellhus would make, down to a frighteningly specific level.

Sent from my SCH-I605 using Tapatalk

Well, I can't say your wrong. He's just manipulating for the wrong side, yo!  Unless you subscribe that the Dûnyain are aligned with the Consult. I've lost that delusion. EAMD

There is the option that this is a huge pissing contest between Shae and Seswatha though.

[MSJ]

There is the option that this is a huge pissing contest between Shae and Seswatha though.

I'd say that is exactly what is going on. But, there are some huge stakes in this pissing contest.......

[Wilshire]

Also, since I'm about halfway through TDTCB, my 3rd reread. I've seen a couple things early that point to Seswatha being a bigger part of this story. First, I believe right of the bat Seswatha is starting to manipulate Akka's dreams. He notes in one of his first dreams we see that when he looks in the mirror he see's himself and not Seswatha, notes how odd that is. Secondly, when he's meeting with Inrau and Sarcellus knocks him to the ground he whispers in Akka's ear, "Oh, how I've longed to do that!". Right there is a skin spy speaking to Seswatha and you would never pick that up unless on a reread. And, it enforces the idea, to me, that Seswatha is part of this thing hands on. It actually shocked me when I read it, like a subtle clue left so early on.

TDTCB was the only one I read 3 times, the rest twice, and even on the 3rd read there are still things like that which jump out. Shits crazy.

[H]

I reread the series twice, but now I kind of reread select parts here and there, in my quest for minutia. 

[profgrape]

I reread the series twice, but now I kind of reread select parts here and there, in my quest for minutia. 

H, I know exactly what you mean.  It feels like every time I re-read the Kellhus/Moe dialogue, for example, I discover yet another tiny bit that *might* end up being important.   And the portion of TJE where Akka decides to let Mimara into the tower.

[H]

I'd say that is exactly what is going on. But, there are some huge stakes in this pissing contest.......

What better game to play then the one with the highest possible stakes though?

[geoffrobro]

Also, since I'm about halfway through TDTCB, my 3rd reread. I've seen a couple things early that point to Seswatha being a bigger part of this story. First, I believe right of the bat Seswatha is starting to manipulate Akka's dreams. He notes in one of his first dreams we see that when he looks in the mirror he see's himself and not Seswatha, notes how odd that is. Secondly, when he's meeting with Inrau and Sarcellus knocks him to the ground he whispers in Akka's ear, "Oh, how I've longed to do that!". Right there is a skin spy speaking to Seswatha and you would never pick that up unless on a reread. And, it enforces the idea, to me, that Seswatha is part of this thing hands on. It actually shocked me when I read it, like a subtle clue left so early on.

Ime pretty sure every Skin-Spy has spoken to Seswatha thru the Mandati. Chigra Almost as if instead of seeing the mark the Skin-spys see him

[MSJ]

Also, since I'm about halfway through TDTCB, my 3rd reread. I've seen a couple things early that point to Seswatha being a bigger part of this story. First, I believe right of the bat Seswatha is starting to manipulate Akka's dreams. He notes in one of his first dreams we see that when he looks in the mirror he see's himself and not Seswatha, notes how odd that is. Secondly, when he's meeting with Inrau and Sarcellus knocks him to the ground he whispers in Akka's ear, "Oh, how I've longed to do that!". Right there is a skin spy speaking to Seswatha and you would never pick that up unless on a reread. And, it enforces the idea, to me, that Seswatha is part of this thing hands on. It actually shocked me when I read it, like a subtle clue left so early on.

Ime pretty sure every Skin-Spy has spoken to Seswatha thru the Mandati. Chigra Almost as if instead of seeing the mark the Skin-spys see him

Right, they always do. Just this instance none of that is explained as of yet. And what it said to me is that they've (skins spies) have been waging this war with the Mandate (Seswatha) since they've been around. Seswatha is their true enemy, not Akka or any other Mandate Schoolmen. And, like I was saying, upon first read you would think Sarcellus is just speaking to Akka. He's not though, he's saying that to Chigra (Seswatha). Almost as if Akka meant nothing to him, he was just so satisfied to smack Seswatha.

[Cüréthañ]

Honestly when it comes to master manipulators, Nerdenal's 'Meketrig is behind everything' is still the most complete hypothesis I've seen - whilst still seeming highly unlikely.

[MSJ]

Please point me in the right direction. I'd love to read it.

[Cüréthañ]

Uh, I think she/he outlined better it in some of the ancient westeros threads.

But here is a surviving pertinent fragment from threeseas.com.

I think even the highest ranks of the Dûnyain are truly ignorant of sorcery. Otherwise Kellhus would have been able to sense the Mark on them and would have later made the connection. Of course it's possible he did and it just wasn't told to the reader, but I doubt it.

This erasing of information raises questions on just who was behind the thought processes that lead to the deliberate forgetting about the Outside and why. Honest search for the truth does not explain it. My theory is that the Dûnyain were a covert Consult organization so secret that even most of the Consult didn't know about it, even though its acts of assassination and sabotage had a massive effect on the war. I think Mekeritrig was likely the one responsible, but with his memory problems he doesn't remember it. He keeps notes though, and his meeting with Kellhus was no accident but part of his complex plan to bring about the triumph of the No-God and also to kill the last surviving Inchoroi. (The No-God is fine with the last part because of how incompetent the Consult has been. Kellhus didn't lie to Aurang about that.) Mekeritrig carefully constructed the Dûnyain society to resist change and guided the Dûnyain though magic wardings to Ishual, knowing that after a few thousand years his tools would have become refined and powerful indeed through the power of selective breeding while still remaining his tools.

Mekeritrig made the darkness that came before the Dûnyain in order to predict their reactions and thus control them, and by extension, control the world.

Source