[mrganondorf]

@ lockesnow - It never occured to me that Moe 'rode' a sranc heard to the south.  It's a cool idea, but I still find it a hard sell.  Moe's encounter with the sranc always left me wondering what they hell they could have done to him and would the actions be on a level of "breaking" a dunyain (in the same manner Moe asserts that K is broken).  Mewonders if Moe was 'tainted' in some way and that it's going to effect the fulfillment of the TTT.

I'm hesitant to think that Moe simply overcame the sranc because (apparently) Kellhus did not and that would have been a phuckload more easy than fighting all the way to death's door just to be rescued by Cnaiur in the nick of time.

About your longer post--I LOVE IT!!!  I don't know if it's true, but I just love the idea that K's whole adventure follows Moe's plan (God has a plan for your life, Kellhus).  All those coincidences line up real nice to see Kellhus exalted and PERSONALLY CONVINCED of his special stature.  Plus all the other events too good to be true: Esmi's rare womb available at the right time, Akka pushed into Kellhus' path and preserved, a daimotic spared till he can teach, etc. 

I'm really hoping that TUC ends with a big reveal that someone's been masterminding the whole time and then BAM, but they didn't think of X!  But actually they did.  But they didn't think of Y!  But they did.  They thought of everyt..stabbed in the neck.  The NG is loosed without anyone to control him.

Moe's Plan reminds me of Gandolf taking care to off Smaug and a balrog before the final confrontation with Mordor.

The only ammendment I might propose: no reason that Moe must do it all alone.  He could stand at the head (or be a principal member) of a cabal of dunyain, cishaurim, and new/turned ensouled skinspies.  Whole hoards of markless sorcerers conditioning Kellhus' path from hobbit hole and back again.  Cish on hand to send dreams (just to K), Cish on hand to distract/prevent Mekeritrig overdoing it, Cish on hand to make sure Conphas wipes out Scylvendi to allow for Nansur might to join holy war and clear the path for the great ordeal later.

BUT, then I start to wonder if I'm just confusing Moe with Bakker.  Circumstances have to be contrived or else there is no story! 

I haven't thought about Conphas and Fanayal together as kids.  I think I'd like to see that in the Atrocity Tales.

About Conphas being both conditioned by Moe AND resistant to Kellhus, this, to me, made the conversion of the holy war possible in the manner of thesis- antithesis- synthesis.  Kellhus' eventual possession of the holy war (in that he holds their hearts like no other) needed a drama of tension to create the crisis moment when almost all of the holy war would suddenly become K's.  I think...

[mrganondorf]

@ Sideris - that bit o' magic Moe did with Xerius, that's the perfect kind of thing to keep up communication between Ishual and Kyudea!

@ Callan - I don't disagree with you that Moe failed, but he had SOOO much time, part of me wonders if the appearance of failure was also part of how he saw the TTT.

LOL, dunyain fuckups lead to the last benchwarmer: Kellhus!  Srslytho, should I doubt that Kellhus is Moe's biological son?  It might serve the purpose to think Kellhus was being called especially when really he's just another promising male from the Anasurimbor stock.

@ The Sharmat - The idea of many Mallahets is just delicious!  Combine this idea with Moe's possible ability to create skinspies with souls--how many Mallahets are still walking around?  AND DID ONE OF THEM TAKE THE FALL FOR MOE; SKINSPY SLAVISHLY ALLOWS HIMSELF TO BE CHORAED DEEP IN THE EARTH!!!

Really like the idea of Moe sending Cnaiur dreams--this would allow Moe to condition him over the decades, from the shadows.  I'm not sure I trust any limitations on sorcerous dreams that are presented in the text.  Lies and ignorance could hide all kind of capacities.

@ Twooars - I definitely agree up to a point that Moe/Kellhus were taking rational gambles, so not all coicidence is meaningful in the story, but there seems too much of it to not smell of the unfolding of the TRILLIONFOLD THOUGHT

@ Wiltshire - "Simply put, Moe failed, was outsmarted (or at least out-lucked) by Kell and other circumstances, and died because of it. I sincerely doubt he had some super secret mega ultra KO punch that he was hiding, or some kind of amazing scheme that he was waiting to employ after faking this or that outcome. If he did, he wouldn't have risked everything for Kel."

I'm thinking that all had to be risked for Kellhus, because Moe/Dunyain require an exquisitely conditioned soul that will have something to do with causing/preventing the No-God.  Kellhus had to be juuuuuussst right.  IDK

As far as warring interpretations of the TTT, I'm betting that Moe got it right and Kellhus understood it as Moe wanted him to.  Maybe?

Man, you beat me to the kyudean topos ages ago!

@ Curethan - Well, idk that we should take anyone's word for it that the probability trance ever failed Moe.  Psukke is just the sort of thing to keep a dude alive while he's hanging from a tree and fill his head with odd notions.

BTW, i like your reading of the situation, but I REALLY LIKE how Bakker has set up the books to be read either way: gambles or the plan.

Love your reading of what it means to shine

[locke]

Kellhus is assuredly conditioned in his utter unquestioningness of himself.  Kellhus is all about "Everything I do is awesome! I am the awesome! Awesome awesome awesome!"  He is a guy who believes himself incapable of making a mistake, moreso, even than Conphas.

Something that should be stated in this thread as well.

Moenghus states he foresaw everything up until the Circumfixion in the Probability Trance.  At the nexus of the Circumfixion the Probability Trance failed him, it could never see beyond this.

After the Probability Trance failed, Moenghus began contemplating the Thousandfold Thought.

implicitly, the Thousand Fold Thought was intended to go beyond the Circumfixion. Explicitly, he says the Thousandfold Thought is a rule change intended to transform the very ground--the base conditions--of the world.

taking the latter route that would suggest that if the  TTT is just a viramsata, an megafauna-idea that changes the ground, that given different ground, the Probability Trance would no longer be stopped by the Circumfixion.  This is the "you were the only path" moment, meaning after Moe used TTT to change the ground, Kellhus was now a successful path through the circumfixion within the probability trance.

[The Sharmat]

I still think that Kellhus never truly grasped the Thousandfold Thought. He just thinks he has. But I'm a big proponent of the "The trial has broken him." position.

[themerchant]

When he is talking with Moe he looks at his "halos" and thinks how can there be light that casts no shadow, am i mad? The light of delusion...

So he has some small internal doubt but then his actions show he hasn't really listened to it, he stabs moe, says he is more than Dunyain he is a harbringer, I'm not sure myself everything i see has merit and makes sense as an argument.

the kind of thing with Kellhus though is, all these little clues can be explained as him laying traps so folk believe false things, you can just continue spiralling down.

My own thought is just like all the actions in the Prince of Nothing everything is conditioned as well in The Aspect Emperor. Now there might be a moment in each trilogy where the conditoning breaks down,thwarting the conditoner in some, Kellhus on the circumfix in Trilogy one and becoming "broken" and perhaps the twin souled Crazy Kel in trilogy two.

I'm still thinking that Moe is still active in some capacity(but probably dead), after all you can't build walls against that which is secret.

[Wilshire]

Something that should be stated in this thread as well.

Moenghus states he foresaw everything up until the Circumfixion in the Probability Trance.  At the nexus of the Circumfixion the Probability Trance failed him, it could never see beyond this.

After the Probability Trance failed, Moenghus began contemplating the Thousandfold Thought.

Disagree. Don't have my books to verify, but TTT existed (created?) before the cirumfixtion. Moe never states this kind of cause/effect relationship between that event and his grasping of TTT.

[locke]

You're correct.  Moenghus' monologue ends with "this is where the probability Trance failed me." speaking of course of the Circumfixion.

Then Kellhus takes over the monologuing. Moenghus briefly protests that the voices Kellhus hears are not part of TTT, Moenghus briefly protests that Kellhus is using words that are mechanisms of control, deceiving himself; Kellhus stumbles over a skull and then Moenghus starts agreeing with Kellhus (flattering him), and agrees with Kellhus the Consult must be stopped and agrees that Kellhus understands all of TTT, and that only Kellhus is the special super awesome snowflake that can save the world (more flattery). 

So Kellhus' conclusions about TTT come after the author indicate he is wrong (stumbling), and Moenghus' affirmation of Kellhus conclusions come after he starts to attempt to manipulate Kellhus through the usual mechanisms that Kellhus manipulates the worldborn.

[Wilshire]

Sounds good to me. I thought you were saying that Moe actually said that TTT was caused by the failing of the probability trance. I misunderstood.

Out of curiosity, locke, do you think Moenghus created TTT or did it exist already, much like how the paths of the probability trance 'exist'  whether one is aware of it or not. Basically, is it a construct of Moenghus' mind to reach some goal, or is it an inevitability drawn from strict adherence to maths and probabilities?

[Alia]

"If a tree falls in a forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?" Sorry, just couldn't stop myself.

[Wilshire]

Its a legit question, and an important distinction. If Moe created it, then its hard to really say that anyone is in control of it, or that anyone can 'surpass' him. But if its something that exists outside or Moenghus, who just happened to stumble upon it first, it becomes a lot easier to see how Kellhus might come before his father.

[mrganondorf]

Its a legit question, and an important distinction. If Moe created it, then its hard to really say that anyone is in control of it, or that anyone can 'surpass' him. But if its something that exists outside or Moenghus, who just happened to stumble upon it first, it becomes a lot easier to see how Kellhus might come before his father.

I hope it is revealed.  My hunch is that the TTT isn't anything more than what a dunyain would do losed in the world respective of certain goals.  If the dunyain is diff or the goals are, then the TTT appears different to that person.

[Wilshire]

I'll try to remember your stance in the future, assuming my own assumptions are the same as others typically causes frustration. At this point I'm more on the fence, but I used to fully believe that TTT was just an extension for the probability trance.

[mrganondorf]

When he is talking with Moe he looks at his "halos" and thinks how can there be light that casts no shadow, am i mad? The light of delusion...

So he has some small internal doubt but then his actions show he hasn't really listened to it, he stabs moe, says he is more than Dunyain he is a harbringer, I'm not sure myself everything i see has merit and makes sense as an argument.

the kind of thing with Kellhus though is, all these little clues can be explained as him laying traps so folk believe false things, you can just continue spiralling down.

My own thought is just like all the actions in the Prince of Nothing everything is conditioned as well in The Aspect Emperor. Now there might be a moment in each trilogy where the conditoning breaks down,thwarting the conditoner in some, Kellhus on the circumfix in Trilogy one and becoming "broken" and perhaps the twin souled Crazy Kel in trilogy two.

I'm still thinking that Moe is still active in some capacity(but probably dead), after all you can't build walls against that which is secret.

This part made me think that Moeghus deliberately left his snakes behind just so he could stand before his father with this moment of doubt.  Moe not having the snakes means he can just say "I don't know, I can't see" whereas if he had the snakes he would either confirm Kellhus view or deny it.  Either one Kellhus could take as proof that his own view was correct.

[mrganondorf]

First spotting of Moenghus!  Right after Kellhus leaves Ishual

"he [Kellhus] was battered by an endless succession of surprises; the thin warble of an unknown bird; burrs in his cload from an unknown weed; a SNAKE winding through a sunlit clearing, searching for unknown prey"

  TDTCB p 7 US paperpack, the prologue

In the next paragraph we get

"His surroundings INHABITED him, POSSESSED him, until he was moved by all things at once"

So Moenghus is using the Psukhe on unsuspecting Kellhus.  Bakker hints at it with "inhabited" the same word Kellhus used to describe Moenghus' relationship to Cnaiur to...uh...Cnaiur.

Very next paragraph is the twig moment which is bookended in TTT right before Kellhus runs off to Kyudea.

Further down the page we see the Psukhe reducing Kellhus into a tabula rasa

"Like a sheet of parchment exposed to the elements, each day saw more words stolen from him--until only one imperative remained: Shimeh...I must find my father in Shimeh"

nother hint just after

"His disPOSSESSION deepened, until he no longer slept or ate."

In the next section, Moenghus must be wrapping up the session of Psukhe remolding

"As the evening waxed, it began to rain.  Through branches he watched the clouds build chill and grey.  For the first time in weeks, he sought shelter."

P 9

Further down the page, more hint

"If the wilderness could not POSSESS him, it would kill him."

After that Moenghus waits until Kellhus collapses in the snow and then psukhe-directs an unknowing Leweth to the rescue.

Kellhus is all better at Leweth's making the time between leaving Ishual and being found by the trapper the most personally tumultuous time for Kellhus until the Circumfix.

Of course the Circumfix is also all psukhe-conducted.  The Cishaurim are there, they make voices for Cnaiur to hear but no one else, they give Kellhus dreams, mold his soul, they make it possible for him to pull out his own heart, survive, and leave no mark.

--------

Another hint?  P. 11

"Leweth would watch from across the fire, his hands living an ARCANE life of their own"

Leweth, the carefully chosen (crafted?) template, the lense through which Kellhus sees all other world-born.  Maybe Leweth is Ultra-Dunyain, able to fool even Kellhus with appearances?

[mrganondorf]

More stuff about Moe being the puppet master:

Kellhus thinking about how far he's come just before he gives his speech to inspire the troops to take Shimeh without him.  TTT US paperback p 276

"He could remember, perfectly, what it had been like those three years past, stepping from the shadow of Ishual's Fallow Gate.  Countless tracks had fanned out from his feet, leading to countless possible outcomes...But those futures, he know knew, had been murdered long before.  The ground he traveled had been Conditioned through and through...Even here, standing before Shimeh, he executed but one operation in the skein of another's godlike calculation.  Even here, his every decision, his every act, confirmed the dread intent of the Thousandfold Thought."

Contrary to what Moe says later, he DID see past the Circumfix!

Here, Moe is testing to see how well he controls Kellhus.  In the Kyudean mansion:

"Moenghus' trail often passed through these grand dioramas, Kellhus found himself walking around--heeding some voice from nowhere."

- p 316

Moe set the path and tests exactly where he can push Kellhus off it.  This happens right around the same time we get the juxtaposition of Iyokus using the Voice to move demons.

Another Bakker hint that Moenghus is the darkness that comes before Kellhus.  When Kellhus finally meets dad p 323

"The fires are for you," the figure said.  "I have lived in darkness for a long, long time."

Later Moe claims that the Probability Trance failed him at what would be the Circumfix.  Showing weakness to Kellhus to bolster Kellhus' view that he is superior to his dad, that he's moar.  Allowing Moe to work in the shadows.  Recall what Cnaiur tells Aurang earlier, p 111; Aurang is upset because Cnaiur says Kellhus is more than a match

Cnaiur cursed and laughed.  "Would you like to know what a Dunyain would hear in your words?"

"And what might that be"

"Posturing.  Vanity.  Weakness that betray your measure and offer innumerable lines of assault.  A Dunyain would grant you your declarations.  He would encourage you in your confidence.  In all things, he would dispense flattering appearances.  He would care nothing whether you thought him your lesser, your slave, so long as you remained ignorant."

Moenghus uses the same line on Kellhus that Kellhus uses on others.  P 362

He reached out as though to clasp Kellhus's wrist or hand, but halted the instant Kellhus shrank back.

"But why, my son?  Why ask me what you already know?"

--------------------------

One big hint?  That these lines are soooo close together p 368

"Yes," Kellhus murmured.  "He speaks to me as well."
WHAT AM I?
"The No-God?" Moenghus asked.

Moenghus has crafted the next No-God, Kellhus.

---------------------------

Whatever is true of Moenghus, Kellhus is definitely somebody's tool.  He is directed from the darkness in his own soul.